Forecast for USD/JPY on May 1, 2023

USD/JPY

On Friday, the USD/JPY pair surged by 236 points. It surpassed the 135.40 target level, and is now heading towards the next resistance at 138.42. On the weekly chart, the MACD line is also located here, which makes this level quite important; overcoming it will determine the pair's growth in the medium-term.

The uptrend can be broken after consolidation below 134.40 (considering the upcoming events of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings), and we can confirm the downtrend once the price crosses the MACD line around the 132.40 mark. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator indicates a reversal from the overbought zone.

The price has moved away from the MACD indicator line by more than two figures, so a correction may occur; it is difficult for the market to meet the uncertainty of the Fed's release without taking a break, even if expectations are the most optimistic. So, according to the main scenario, I expect a correction of the dollar and further growth towards the specified target of 138.42.