Yesterday, traders received several signals to enter the market. Let us take a look at the 5-minute chart to figure out what happened. Earlier, I asked you to pay attention to the level of 1.0830 to decide when to enter the market. A breakout and a reverse test of this level led to a buy signal, which caused a rise of more than 40 pips. Sell orders after a false breakout near 1.0872 resulted in nothing. In the second part of the day, after a jump in the euro, a false breakout of 1.0893 formed a sell signal but traders suffered losses.
Conditions for opening long positions on EUR/USD:
First of all, let us focus on the futures market and the COT report. According to the COT report from March 28, the number of both long and short positions increased. Since last week was not rich in events and the data on US consumer spending was not as good as expected, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise the interest rate at the next meeting. However, the aggressiveness of the European Central Bank will allow buyers of the euro to act more actively after each major decline in the euro against the US dollar. Apart from the US unemployment data, there is nothing interesting this week, so the euro has every chance to reach a new monthly high. The COT report unveiled that long non-commercial positions increased by 7,093 to 222,918, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 6,910 to 77,893. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position increased to 145,025 against 144,842. The weekly closing price rose to 1.0896 from 1.0821.
Today, in the first part of the day, traders will not get any important information. That is why we may see further growth in the euro. Reports on the German foreign trade balance and the eurozone producer price index for March are unlikely to have a considerable impact on the market. If inflation jumps above expectations, demand for the euro will also rise. If the reaction is negative, the pair is likely to decrease. That is why traders should be cautious when opening long positions. It will be wise to go long after a false breakdown in the area of the new support of 1.0881 formed yesterday. Slightly below this level, there are bullish MAs. It means that buyers of the euro have a chance to push the price higher. All this will be a reason to open long positions in the expectation of the development of a further bullish trend with an update of the nearest resistance of 1.0927. Notably, bulls failed to reach his level during the Asian session. A breakthrough and a downward test of this range against the background of strong statistics for the eurozone will allow bulls to reach 1.0975. In the event of this, the pair may climb to 1.1002, a major psychological resistance level. The farthest target is located at the high of 1.1031. The pair may reach this level only in case of weak data from the US. It is better to lock in profits at this level. If the euro/dollar pair declines and buyers fail to protect 1.0881, which is also possible, pressure on the euro will return. In this case, only a false breakout near the next support level of 1.0833 will give a buy signal. Traders may also go long just after a rebound from the high of 1.0792 or even lower – at 1.0748, expecting a rise of 30-35 pips.
Conditions for opening short positions on EUR/USD:
Bears are in no hurry to return to the market, especially after yesterday's rise in the euro without obvious reasons. Today, bulls may attempt to break above the monthly high of 1.0927 in the first part of the day. Sellers should primarily protect this area. A false breakout there amid the eurozone inflation data will give a sell signal with the target at the nearest support level of 1.0881. A breakout and a settlement as well as an upward test of this level will give an additional sell signal, which will affect buyers' stop orders and push the price to 1.0833. The pair may slide below this level only in the second part of the day. The target will be located at the support level of 1.0792, where it is better to lock in profits. If the euro/dollar pair increases during the European session and bears fail to protect 1.0927, bulls will keep control over the market. In this case, it is better to avoid selling until the price hits 1.0975. A false breakout of this level will give a new sell signal. It is also possible to sell the asset just after a bounce off the high of 1.1002 or even higher – at 1.1031, expecting a decline of 30-35 pips.
Signals of indicators:
Moving Averages
Trading is performed above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which points to a further rise in the pair.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the one-hour chart which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator located at 1.0865 will act as support. If the pair increases, the resistance level will be seen at the upper limit of the indicator – at 1.0920.
Description of indicators
Moving average (a moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). The period is 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (a moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). The period is 30. It is marked in green on the graph. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages). A fast EMA period is 12. A slow EMA period is 26. The SMA period is 9. Bollinger Bands. The period is 20. Non-profit speculative traders are individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions are the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions are the total number of short positions opened by non-commercial traders. The total non-commercial net position is a difference in the number of short and long positions opened by non-commercial traders.