EUR/USD: trading plan for the American session on March 15 (analysis of morning deals)

I focused on the 1.0727 level in my morning forecast and suggested making considerations about joining the market from there. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The above area was missing a few points before the test, making it impossible to use that area as an entry point into long positions. The technical picture was only very slightly altered for the afternoon.

If you want to trade long positions on EUR/USD, you will need:

With the decision that will be made at the open market committee meeting in March, the most recent report on US retail sales volume will enable the Federal Reserve to properly assess its future policies. If sales drop, this is good news for the Fed because we can logically anticipate a further drop in inflation this spring. Also, this will undermine the dollar's position and cause the euro to break through once more when monthly highs are renewed. Sales growth will put more pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate. In this situation, only another false breakout at 1.0692, similar to what I was looking at in the morning, will allow me to obtain a buy signal and corroborate the presence of individuals looking to purchase euros in the market, even against the backdrop of such a significant downturn. The nearest resistance level of 1.0731, which was created by the day's first half of results, will be the target. We can achieve a new monthly maximum of 1.0769 with a breakout and top-down test of this range, which increases the likelihood of a larger and higher movement to 1.0802. A new maximum of 1.0834, which can only be attained in the event of extremely weak US data, will be the farthest target, even though it is unattainable. I'll set the profit there. The EUR/USD may decrease, which is also extremely plausible, and equilibrium will rule the market if there are no buyers at 1.0692 in the afternoon. In this scenario, the only situation in which to buy the euro would be a false collapse in the area of the next support level at 1.0654. To achieve an upward corrective of 30-35 points during the day, I will begin long positions on EUR/USD immediately on a rebound only from the minimum of 1.0614, or even lower - around 1.0584.

If you want to trade short positions on EUR/USD, you'll need:

Now, the sellers must maintain control over the nearest support level of 1.0692. Don't overlook the protection of the new resistance around 1.0731, either. This move might occur right after the release of basic data on the US economy that shows a slowdown in economic development. A false breakout at 1.0731 will signify a sell signal, and the euro will thereafter trade lower, toward the area of 1.0692. The pair will move to 1.0654 as a result of the breakdown, consolidation, and reversal test from the bottom up of this level, which serves as an extra indication to enter short positions and destroy buyers' stop orders. Beyond this point, support will be found around 1.0614, where I advise fixing profits. The bulls will continue to dominate the market if the EUR/USD rises during the US session and there are no bears below 1.0731. In this situation, I suggest delaying the transaction until 1.0769. It will become a new entry point for short positions when there is the emergence of a false breakout. To achieve a 30-35 point downward correction, I will sell EUR/USD right away on a rebound from the high of 1.0802, or even higher, from 1.0834.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 21, fewer long and short positions were reported. It should be clear that these data are of no interest at the moment because, in the CFTC cyberattack, statistics are only now starting to catch up, making the data from one month ago less useful. I'll hold off till new reports are released and rely on more recent data. The US inflation rate is one of the key events this week, and it may finally give markets more confidence that the Fed and Jerome Powell won't resume their tough stance on policy as was suggested last week. The prospect of the US banking industry collapsing, which emerged during the BSV bankruptcy, would undoubtedly alter Fed policymakers' assessments of how much more they need to raise the rate to "kill off" the economy. According to the COT data, the number of long non-commercial positions fell by 160 to reach 236,414 while the number of short non-commercial roles fell by 1,322 to reach 71,346. The total non-commercial net position rose to 165,038 from 150,509 after the week. The weekly closing price fell from 1.0742 to 1.0698.

Signals from indicators

Moving Averages

Trade is currently below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a short-term decline in the euro.

Notably, the author considers the time and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and departs from the standard definition of the traditional daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bands by Bollinger

The indicator's upper bound in the area of 1.0770 will serve as resistance in the event of growth.

Description of indicators

Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and to meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.