Yesterday, traders received several signals to enter the market. Let us take a look at the 5-minute chart to figure out what happened. Earlier, I asked you to pay attention to the level of 1.2168 to decide when to enter the market. The rise and false breakout in the first part of the day gave a sell signal, but after the pair fell by 25 pips, the pressure on the pound decreased. In the second part of the day, volatility surged after the release of the US inflation report, but the bears managed to regain control of 1.2168, and an upward test of this level led to a sell signal and GBP/USD fell by 30 pips.
Conditions for opening long positions on GBP/USD:
Yesterday's U.S. inflation report did not lead to bullish momentum for the pound, but there is still more to come. Today, the annual budget of Great Britain will be published, which may bring a lot of surprises. Therefore, you should be careful about entering the market, since there is still a possibility that the pound can enter a bearish correction. If that happens, the bulls will count on the nearest support level at 1.2136. Only a false breakout of this level will give a buy signal in order for the pair to reach yesterday's high at 1.2200. After consolidation and a downside test of this range, given that traders react positively to the UK budget, the price may head towards 1.2265. Traders may go long after a breakout, and this will allow the pound to climb to 1.2321, where it is better to lock in profits. If the pair falls and bulls fail to protect 1.2136, nothing bad will happen, but the risk of a larger correction will increase. In the event of this, it is better to avoid buying the asset until the price is near the next support at 1.2091. There, traders may go long only after a false breakout. Likewise, GBP/USD could be bought on a bounce off the 1.2048 low, allowing a correction of 30 to 35 pips intraday.
Conditions for opening short positions on GBP/USD:
The bears have a chance, especially after yesterday's UK labor market data. The Bank of England can still reconsider its attitude towards interest rates. The trading plan in the European session will be to sell GBP/USD after a false breakout around the nearest resistance at 1.2200, as the pair failed to climb above this level yesterday. The annual budget should help with that. After that a sell signal will be made and the quotes may fall to the 1.2136 intermediate support. After a breakout and an upward test, pressure on the pair will increase, this will give a sell signal with the target at the low of 1.2091. The next target is located at 1.2048, where it is better to lock in profits. If the pound/dollar pair increases and bears fail to protect 1.2200, the bears will leave the market. A false breakout through 1.2265 resistance will create a sell entry point. If there is no trading activity there as well, I am going to sell GBP/USD from the 1.2321 high, allowing a bearish correction of 30 to 35 pips intraday.
COT report:
According to the COT report from February 21, the number of both long and short positions increased. Notably, the data is of zero importance at the moment since it was relevant a month ago. The CFTC has just started recovering after a cyber attack. That is why it is better to wait for fresh statistics. This week, all eyes will be turned to the UK labor market reports and average earnings growth. This will help the BoE to decide on the key interest rate hike amid stable inflation. Household earnings growth may keep inflation at the current high level. Meanwhile, the US is going to disclose its inflation figures, which may prove that Jerome Powell will switch to a looser policy. A risk of the US banking sector collapse, which occurred after the BSV bankruptcy, may force the Fed to alter its view on how long it should raise the benchmark rate until the economy becomes damaged. The recent COT report unveiled that the number of short non-commercial positions increased by 3,277 to 45,475, while the number of long non-commercial positions jumped by 4,898 to 66,891. Against the backdrop, the negative value of the non-commercial net position advance to -21,416 against -19,795 a week earlier. The weekly closing price decreased to 1.2112 from 1.2181.
Signals of indicators:
Moving Averages
Trading is performed above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which points to the bullish sentiment in the market.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the one-hour chart which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator located at 1.2136 will act as support.
Description of indicators
Moving average (a moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). The period is 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (a moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). The period is 30. It is marked in green on the graph.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages). A fast EMA period is 12. A slow EMA period is 26. The SMA period is 9.Bollinger Bands. The period is 20.Non-profit speculative traders are individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions are the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders.