The unexpected crisis in the US banking sector has crushed all hopes for a new acceleration in the pace of interest rate hikes. Goldman Sachs economists said they no longer see the Fed raising rates next week, even after US authorities took steps to contain the crisis caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. This caused two-year Treasury bond yields to fall by 18 basis points to 4.34%, reaching its sharpest three-day drop since October 1987. Expectations of a less aggressive policy stance and sharp demand for German bonds also affected the euro.
Most likely, Fed officials will announce a pause in interest rate hikes this week ahead of their meeting on March 21-22. Economists were expecting to see around 0.25% to 0.5% increase earlier, but everything changed since last Sunday, when US authorities had to act very quickly in order to contain the spreading of SVB's problem to other US banks. The Fed had to open an emergency line of credit, allowing banks to pledge a range of high-quality assets to obtain cash for a period of one year. They also pledged to fully protect uninsured depositors in SVBs, as well as relax lending conditions through the Fed's discount window. These measures should provide liquidity shortages to banks.
Now, the Fed is expected to raise the rate by a quarter point next week, which means that the peak will be around 5.1% in six months, slightly lower than the previously projected 5.74%.
The current situation is quite negative for dollar as it most certainly raises risk appetite. However, market players should keep in mind that if the crisis in the US banking sector is not solved quickly, it will spread to other regions, which will result in a collapse in other currencies such as euro and pound.
Ahead is an important US report, that is, the inflation data for February this year. Economists are predicting that the index will show a 0.4% increase, slightly lower than the previous month's 0.5%. Yearly data should be 5.5%, which is also lower than the 5.6% earlier.
Demand for euro has intensified after all the news, so buyers have a chance to continue building the new upward trend. However, the quote needs to stay above 1.0700 as only by that will euro go beyond 1.0730 and head towards 1.0770 and 1.0800. Should the quote decline below 1.0700, EUR/USD will slip to 1.0666.
In GBP/USD, bulls also control the market, but the quote needs to stay above 1.2130 so that pound could have the chance to break through 1.2170 and head towards 1.2215 and 1.2265. If bears manage to gain control, the pair may dip to 1.2080 and 1.2050.