The Australian dollar showed restraint on Friday, as the U.S. dollar fell 0.59% (USDX). This morning, the aussie is trying to grow as far as the technical factors allow it. Resistance is at 0.6640, the Marlin oscillator is rising ahead of the price and this boosts the chances of the price settling above this level. In case it succeeds, the price can climb up to 0.6730.
But ideologically, the AUD/USD is still late with growth. And in today's Asian session, commodity prices fell, and Australian government bonds have barely made it out of the yield pit after a two-week decline from 3.73% to 3.15% (5-year bonds).
On the four-hour chart, the price encountered resistance from the MACD and balance lines. Convergence with the oscillator is almost worked out, but the signal line is intensively growing.
Therefore, I expect growth after AUD climbs above the MACD line at 0.6655. Nevertheless, this is still an alternative scenario, though there is still a high probability of its realization. As for the main scenario, I expect the price to settle below 0.6640 and fall to 0.6550. We're waiting for a resolution to this scenario.