Yesterday, the euro managed to develop a correction so that it can reach the target level of 1.0595 this morning. The price returned to the consolidation range of the second half of December 2022, and can stay there until the release of the US employment data. Also, the price may settle below 1.0595, as the trading volumes have noticeably decreased in recent days.
We expect today's Nonfarm Payrolls to be good as weekly jobless claims are coming in at a consistently low 196,000 on average over the past month. A month earlier, the average was 189,000 and then, in January, Nonfarm Payrolls showed an increase of 517,000 new jobs. Forecast for February is 205,000, the data is likely to be better than forecast. I expect the euro to fall to the target range of 1.0443/70.
On the four-hour chart, the price has stopped rising in the area where the MACD indicator line coincides with the target resistance of 1.0595. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator closely approached the zero neutral line.There is a high probability that the price will reverse to the downside. In the main bearish scenario, the price can also climb above the resistance, but this will be a false breakout.