The past month turned out to be extremely unfortunate for the Australian dollar and the AUD/USD pair, which lost all the gains of the previous two months and fell to 0.6729.
Today, at the beginning of a new trading week, the pair is trading near the same mark, remaining under pressure below the key resistance levels 0.6870 (50 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.6850 (200 EMA on the daily chart).
Below these levels and resistance levels 0.7065 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7130 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), the pair is in the long-term bearish market zone.
Technical indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily and weekly charts are also on the sellers' side.
The nearest targets in case of further decline are the local support levels 0.6700, 0.6665, 0.6635, and the distant ones are near 0.6200, 0.6170 (lows since April 2020). A breakdown of the nearest local support level at 0.6700 may be a signal for building up short positions.
In an alternative scenario, the pair will resume growth, heading towards the above-mentioned key levels 0.6850, 0.6870. Their breakdown, and then the breakdown of the 0.6920 local resistance level, may create prerequisites for further growth, returning AUD/USD to the medium-term bull market zone.
The Australian dollar and the AUD/USD pair have the potential for further growth, based on the tough position of the RBA leadership regarding the prospects for the monetary policy of the Australian central bank. The earliest signal to start the implementation of this scenario may be a breakdown of the local resistance level and 200 EMA on the 1-hour chart, passing through 0.6772.
And tomorrow, we should expect a significant increase in volatility in the AUD quotes and the AUD/USD pair, respectively.
Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6665, 0.6635
Resistance levels: 0.6772, 0.6800, 0.6820, 0.6850, 0.6870, 0.6900, 0.6920
Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 0.6690. Stop-Loss 0.6780. Take-Profit 0.6665, 0.6635, 0.6600, 0.6500, 0.6455, 0.6390
Buy Stop 0.6780. Stop-Loss 0.6690. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6820, 0.6850, 0.6870, 0.6900, 0.6920, 0.7000, 0.7040, 0.7075, 0.7100, 0.7140