The dollar index (DXY) ended February with a decent 2.8% gain. The growth of the dollar took place against the backdrop of positive macro statistics from the U.S., which revived the hopes of dollar buyers for the continuation of the Fed's super tight monetary policy.
However, judging by today's and yesterday's dynamics, the dollar cannot yet determine the direction of further movement. Although it has been strengthening since the opening of today's trading day, as of writing, the price of DXY futures rested on a key resistance level of 104.70 (200 EMA on the daily CFD #USDX chart).
Below this level, the dollar index (CFD #USDX) is in a medium-term bear market zone. It needs to break above the resistance level 105.00 (144 EMA on the daily chart) to resume its long-term bullish momentum and consolidate there to continue the upward trend towards last year's highs near the 113.00, 114.00, 114.70 marks.
Alternatively, after the breakdown of the support levels 104.05 (50 EMA on the daily and weekly chart), 103.79 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), the price will move towards the key support levels 100.10 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 98.80 (200 EMA on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the long term support at 93.30 (200 EMA on the monthly chart) will confirm the final return of the dollar and its DXY index to the global downward trend zone.
The breakdown of the short-term support level 104.42 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) may be the first signal for the implementation of this scenario and the resumption of short positions.
Support levels: 104.42, 104.05, 103.79, 103.00, 102.00, 101.50, 101.00, 100.10, 98.80
Resistance levels: 104.70, 105.00, 106.00, 107.00, 107.80, 109.25
Trading scenarios
Dollar Index CFD #USDX: Sell Stop 104.30. Stop Loss 104.80. Take-Profit 104.05, 103.79, 103.00, 102.00, 101.50, 101.00, 100.10, 98.80
Buy Stop 104.80. Stop-Loss 104.30. Take-Profit 105.00, 106.00, 107.00, 107.80, 109.25