Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 16, 2023

Crypto Industry News:

Former high-ranking U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) official John Reed Stark believes that future events surrounding the presidential election could contribute to the approval of a Bitcoin ETF.

Stark, founder of the SEC's Office of Internet Enforcement, says cryptocurrencies have become an important topic for both major political parties in the United States. However, he notes that Republicans seem to be more supportive of them than Democrats.

According to him, if the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, there is a high probability that the Bitcoin ETF will be approved by the SEC.

Stark anticipates that the SEC will significantly reduce cryptocurrency enforcement efforts in such a case. Focusing mainly on scams, instead of focusing on purely registration violations, such as not registering a cryptocurrency trading platform as an exchange or broker.

In addition, it will be more open to accepting Bitcoin-based ETFs and other pro-crypto regulatory decisions.

Stark points out that if a Republican were elected president, the SEC membership would be split evenly between the two major parties. He adds that cryptocurrency enthusiast, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce could become the acting chair of the Commission.

Had the Republican been elected, the current SEC chairman would likely have resigned. The new one, on the other hand, would not be confirmed until several months after its inauguration. In such a scenario, the oldest Republican in the SEC, known as "cryptomom", Hester Peirce, could take Gensler's place.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has hit level of $29,657 during the recent spike up and then pulled-back towards the moving average located at the level of $29,338. Overnight, the bears managed to push the price lower and currently the BTC is under the bearish pressure. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at the $29,428 was violated during the down move. The next retracement level for a pull-back is seen at the level of $29,238. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $30,324 and $30,510. The market conditions are neutral as the RSI is approaching the level of fifty, however, the momentum is still strong, so the short-term outlook remains bullish. Only a sustained breakout back below the trend line would change the outlook back to bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $29,987

WR2 - $29,629

WR1 - $29,485

Weekly Pivot - $29,270

WS1 - $29,127

WS2 - $28,912

WS3 - $28,553

Trading Outlook:

The bulls broken above the gamechanging level located at $25,442, so now the mid-term outlook for BTC is bullish. The last pull-back has reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the market is ready to continue the up move. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $32,350. As long as the level of 19,572 is not clearly violated, there is a chance for a long-term up trend to continue.