On the 4-hour TF, it is evident that bitcoin is confidently advancing to the level of $24,350. Remember that the expansion started with the release of the US inflation report a few weeks ago. Of course, the likelihood that the Fed will tighten monetary policy by 0.5% in February is reduced, rather than this report itself, which is most likely what sparked the rise of bitcoin. After all, we recall that the euro and the pound have also recently shown significant growth and refuse to adjust in principle. Thus, we can even say that the cryptocurrency market reacts quite logically. It's logical, but not really.
It is a fact that the Fed keeps raising interest rates. But keep in mind the QT program as well. Remember the period of high-interest rates. Remember those major and institutional investors currently find it more beneficial to purchase equities and indices that have lost value, government bonds with higher yields, or routine bank deposits. The US is experiencing rapid deflation, which is expected to reach 3% by year's end and 2% by year's end. However, an "above average" return can be attained during the following five to ten years. Therefore, all of bitcoin's recent growth is "retail-speculative." What took place? Some market participants believed that the time for the Fed's monetary policy to gradually tighten had already arrived and that the regulator would soon end this "outrage" completely. As a result, they started to buy. However, this does not imply that every player ran after them.
Of course, the predictions of different crypto specialists are still very hopeful, but not as much as before. For example, investor Bill Tai believes that while bitcoin may rise, a drop below $12,000 is possible before a new round begins. The strategic director of CoinShares, Meltem Demirors, predicts that the price of bitcoin will not rise above $30,000 this year. Although purchases are similarly modest, he thinks that sales are already drying up. According to Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of the financial firm SkyBridge, the market will gradually rebound this year, and within two to three years, bitcoin will surpass the $100,000 threshold. As you can see, the only future possibilities are $100,000. Although we think a new "bullish" trend in bitcoin is possible, we don't think it will begin in 2023.
The first cryptocurrency's rise continues with a target price of $24,350 over a 4-hour period. A rebound from the level of $24,350, in our opinion, will signal the end of any long positions and the start of new short positions with targets of $18,500 and $17,582. Although there is a chance that Bitcoin may enter a new short-term "bullish" trend, the underlying background should ideally gradually improve. And just now, we are not noticing this.