Rosenberg Research founder and chief economist David Rosenberg said investment demand for gold could push prices to historic highs in 2023, most likely above $2,000, if the US economy falls into recession.
He said in an exclusive interview that when it comes to the state of the economy this year, the only questions investors should be asking themselves are: how severe will the impending recession be and how should they protect their wealth?
Rosenberg was quite optimistic about gold in his 2023 outlook report, explaining that this is because he sees dollar and the Fed's monetary policy peaking this year. He also mentioned that even though inflation has fallen sharply from its 2022 summer high, it remains consistently high. And since the Fed is set on bringing down this figure to 2%, it is likely that response to other growing economic weaknesses will be slow. Rosenberg added that the Fed will not cut interest rates quickly because it does not want a new threat to inflation. Most likely, it will raise interest rates next month and then hold them until recessionary conditions become too difficult to ignore. Rates will be cut only in the second half of the year
Regarding market pricing, Rosenberg said investors should take the central bank's forecasts with a considerable amount of skepticism. He also believes that the recession could last more than six quarters, the longest one since the 1980s.
Rosenberg used the US housing market as one example of an impending economic downturn, noting that the house price bubble is bigger than it was before the 2008 financial crisis.
He also said that the Federal Reserve may not provide much help during the impending recession, so consumers should not expect any fiscal stimulus.