EUR/USD. Analysis for December 21, 2022

The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart still appears to be quite accurate, but the entire upward section of the trend is becoming more convoluted. It has already assumed a clear corrective and somewhat prolonged form. We have obtained a complex corrective wave structure a-b-c-d-e, in which the wave e has a much more complex appearance than the first four waves. Since the peak of wave e is much higher than the peak of wave C, if the wave markings are accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished or may already be finished. In this scenario, it is anticipated that we will construct at least three waves downward, though the following wave may be impulsive if the previous trend was corrective. I'm preparing for a significant decline in the instrument as a result. The market is prepared to sell when an attempt to surpass the 1.0726 level, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci, fails. Even though it would appear that everything is in place for it, demand for US currency is still not increasing. The wave e's internal wave structure is very unclear. Sub-waves in it are difficult to distinguish.

There is a signal to reduce, but it makes no sense.

On Wednesday, the euro/dollar instrument experienced a 15 basis point decline. These figures, however, should not be misinterpreted because they are highly conditional. When flat, the instrument cannot start and end the day at the same price value. As a result, there will always be either a slight increase or decrease in quotes. The fact remains that the instrument has been moving horizontally over the past week, and neither demand for the euro, pound, nor dollar is increasing. There are no ambiguities regarding why the market does not want to trade at this time when examining the news context from the first two days. There were no noteworthy events for the first three days of the week. As a result, the instrument has been increasing almost constantly over the past few weeks, a trend for which I frequently have no explanation.

Days other than Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be slightly more interesting on Thursday and Friday. The final GDP report for the third quarter will be released in the UK and the US tomorrow. The economy is predicted to grow by 2.9% q/q in the USA and contract by 0.2% q/q in the UK. As a result, although I do not anticipate a significant increase in the value of the US dollar, demand for it may increase slightly. The holiday element, in my opinion, is now more crucial. Even more so than wave analysis, which for several weeks in a row has led me to believe that a wave or series of waves will eventually form.

Conclusions in general

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the upward trend section's construction has multiplied into five waves and is almost finished. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. Although there is a chance that the upward portion of the trend will become even more extended and complicated, and this possibility still exists, at least we now have a signal to turn downward.

The wave marking of the descending trend segment noticeably becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this section is complete, work on a downward trend section can start.