The bitcoin cryptocurrency has breached the Fibonacci level of 127.2%, or $ 18,500, and several weeks have passed since that time. As expected, during this time, the cryptocurrency has yet to attempt to begin an upward trend or, at the very least, return to the region above the $18,500 level. After another collapse, it simply went flat, where it is today. As a result, the cryptocurrency will still trade in the following pattern: collapse, a few months of flat trading, and another collapse.
The underlying context for the last few weeks has been the same. Nothing has occurred that would allow one to claim that bitcoin can stop falling and start forming a "bullish" trend. There are occasionally various news stories about the cryptocurrency industry, but lately, they are more frequently about a specific company's bankruptcy or liquidity issues. Naturally, it isn't easy to anticipate the cryptocurrency and the cryptocurrency market strengthening against such a fundamental backdrop. Therefore, bitcoin has not hit its bottom. Given that central banks have raised key rates and will continue to do so while reducing their balance sheets, it could fall much lower than it is now. Both of these processes tighten the monetary policy, and any tightening of the monetary policy is bad for risky assets, of which bitcoin is one.
The Fed will already hold its final meeting of the year the following week, and there is a 100% chance that the rate will increase by 0.5%. We are still discussing tightening, not weakening, despite the slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening. So, we cannot understand why bitcoin is increasing. Also, keep in mind that this may not be the last bankruptcy of exchanges whose owners turned out to be running fraudulent schemes. There have already been numerous reports that a certain company is laying off employees or ceasing to operate certain mining facilities. And what else is there to do if the price of bitcoin is currently less than the cost of producing it and investors aren't responding to various astute predictions of "crypto experts" who forecast coin prices of $100,000 or higher in the near future? The era in which the market blindly believed Elon Musk or Michael Saylor is over. Everyone is now using their judgment rather than blindly accumulating cryptocurrencies.
The "bitcoin" quotes finally made a successful attempt to surpass the level of $ 18,500 throughout a 24-hour period. Now that we have a target in mind of $12,426, the fall may continue. As we previously stated, since the price was concurrently in a side channel, crossing the downward trend line does not signify the end of the "bearish" trend. The quotes may drop further as the lower channel limit has been reached.