On the 4-hour TF, it is visible that bitcoin has overcome not only the most important level of $18,500 but also its "duplicate" level of $17,582, which supported the "bitcoin" rate several times. As a result, Bitcoin has every technical reason to continue falling to $12,426 as predicted. The collapse of the FTX exchange was just a "trigger" for a new fall in bitcoin, but we believe it would have continued without such events. However, such events are logical consequences for the loss of about 70–75% of the value of bitcoin. If its price falls too much, then most investors (as we have already said more than once) are at a loss. Their mood becomes more pessimistic, and they often impulsively get rid of an unprofitable asset. Of course, only some people do this. Institutional investors can afford to be at a loss for years, waiting for longer-term growth. But small investors are not ready to keep the "bitcoin" on their balance sheet for a long time in the hope that it will someday grow.
Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements presented a rather interesting study, which indicates that most crypto investors are only looking for profit when investing and do not seek to get away from the traditional banking system. Analysts have carefully analyzed such a parameter as the number of downloads of various crypto applications and concluded that it grows when bitcoin itself grows. This allows us to conclude that most small and retail traders sought to enter the bull market for quick and easy profit. When the price of bitcoin falls, the number of downloads of applications for trading cryptocurrencies drops sharply. The bank's analysts also concluded that users do not have a pronounced dislike of the banking system or distrust of governments and are not looking for alternative savings methods. Recall that we have repeatedly reached the same conclusions without any research because it is obvious that bitcoin is a highly volatile, super–profitable, and very risky investment tool, not an alternative to fiat money. At least for now. Analysts at the Bank for International Settlements also suggested that most of those who downloaded the application and presumably bought the cryptocurrency immediately after downloading are at a loss.
The quotes of "bitcoin" finally left the side channel where they had been for five months in four hours. Both important levels of $18,500 and $17,582 have been overcome, so we expect the fall to continue with a target of $12,426. Trend lines and channels are no longer relevant, but the downward trend persists. Bitcoin is trying to stay afloat, but the fundamental background regularly drowns it. After falling to $12,426, we may see a few more months of flat.