While the US currency continues to decline against the euro and the pound, I propose turning again to the US congressional elections. At first glance (in the first few days after the election), everything was obvious and unambiguous – the Republicans would win, and the Democrats, at best, would hardly retain an advantage in the Senate. However, the more time passes, the more the Republicans' victory in at least one chamber is in doubt. To begin with, the Democrats have already won the Senate. Even with full equality of seats in the Upper House, the key vote will be Kamala Harris, a Democrat. Many American sources indicated that the Democrats gained the necessary seats to hold the majority. However, data from The Associated Press indicates that at the moment, the Democrats have 48 seats, the Republicans have 49, and the election results remain unknown in only one state. However, let's take our American colleagues at their word.
A much more interesting situation is developing in the House of Representatives. According to the Associated Press, at the moment, the Republicans have gained 217 seats and the Democrats – 205. Most likely, the Republicans will win in the Lower House, but it will not be devastating, as many experts expected. Under certain circumstances, the Democrats may even be ahead of the Republicans regarding the number of seats. In Arizona, the votes have not been counted in two more districts, and Democrats and Republicans have a real chance of winning. In California, Democrats can get three more seats. In Colorado – another thing, in Oregon – the situation is almost equal. The Republicans will still win the Lower House, but the margin will be small. And many are already blaming Donald Trump personally for this.
It's worth starting with the states of Arizona and Nevada, which I already wrote about yesterday. In these states, the Republicans were defeated, although they expected to win. In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Donald Trump personally appointed candidates who ultimately lost out. It is noted that the election slogans and promises of the Republicans were too radical. At the same time, the Democrats were more cautious in their statements, and Americans often chose moderation over radicalism.
The Washington Post journalists even wrote that many Americans voted not for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party but against "Trumpism" and the anti-democratic movement within the Republican Party. There were too many scandals connected with the personality of Donald Trump, and a similar situation was in the presidential election in 2020, when many Americans did not want to see Donald Trump personally as the head of state for another four years. However, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden will now be preparing for the 2024 elections, and both have already announced that they will stand as candidates. In the USA, they set out to beat the age records of the president of the country. Biden will be 81 years old in 2 years, and Trump will be 78 years old.
Based on the analysis, the construction of the upward trend section has become more complicated consisting of five waves. It continues due to the inflation report and impartial statements by FOMC members. However, I cannot advise buying now since the wave marking still needs to imply a further increase. I advise selling in case of a successful attempt to break through the 1.0359 mark with targets located near the estimated 0.9994 mark, which corresponds to 323.6% Fibonacci.