On the 4-hour TF, it is visible that bitcoin has overcome not only the most important level of $18,500 but also its "duplicate" level of $17,582, which supported the "bitcoin" rate several times. As a result, all technical conditions are in place for BTC to continue its decline to $12,426, as we have repeatedly predicted. Meanwhile, information has been received that 70% of bitcoin millionaires who had more than a million dollars in bitcoins a year ago have ceased to be such. We have already written earlier that more than 50% of bitcoin addresses need to be more reputable. Their owners paid more for their coins than the current market value. So it was when the exchange rate was $20,000 per dollar. Now, accordingly, there are even more such unprofitable addresses.
Over the past year, the largest cryptocurrency companies, such as Celsius, Voyager, and Three Arrows Capital, have declared bankruptcy. Now FTX has also been added to them. The collapse of the bitcoin exchange rate, which has already lost more than 70% of its value, and the entire cryptocurrency market and segment. Currently, there are only about 30,000 addresses worldwide where the amount of bitcoins in the equivalent exceeds $ 1 million. At the end of 2021, there were 100–110 thousand.
Nevertheless, the crypto environment remains full of "experts" who insist on a "bright future" for the first cryptocurrency in the world. In principle, if you wait for the "bitcoin" to fall to $1,000, this will be true since everyone will buy it for $1,000. Even if the incredible happens and bitcoin will never be worth more than $1,000 again, the risks will be justified in this case. Even if bitcoin never costs 50 or 70 thousand dollars again, even at $10,000, all new investors will be a huge plus. However, how many people will lose capital when bitcoin starts a new "bullish" trend? Therefore, we continue to be skeptical about such forecasts. There is a clear technical picture and a specific fundamental background. Even if market participants decide to start buying bitcoin, which will not be noticeable from the fundamental background, technical signals for growth should appear. And at the moment, there are no technical signals. Therefore, we recommend taking your time with purchases.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" finally left the side channel in which they spent five months. Both important levels of $18,500 and $17,582 have been overcome, so we expect the fall to continue with a target of $12,426. Trend lines and channels are no longer relevant, but the downward trend persists. Bitcoin is trying to stay afloat, but the fundamental background regularly drowns it. We may see a few more months of the flat after falling to $12,426.