Consumer activity is of great importance, as it is the main engine of economic growth. And the best indicator of its condition are retail sales. So the expected slowdown in their decline in Europe from -2.0% to -1.5% could further strengthen the single currency. However, today it does not matter. Yesterday, the dollar was actively losing its positions on the ever-increasing fears due to the results of today's midterm elections in the United States. The likelihood is high that the Republican Party will actually take control of both houses of Congress, causing many decisions to be delayed. And in the context of the growing economic crisis, this does not bode well. On the contrary, it may contribute to its strengthening. So today the market will stand still all day, waiting for the first preliminary results of the vote.
Retail sales (Europe):
The bulls successfully closed the downward price gap in the EURUSD pair. As a result, there was a prolongation of the Friday ascending cycle, which eventually brought the quote to the area of the parity level.
During the intensive upward move, the RSI indicator H1 and H4 came close to the overbought zone. This technical signal indicates an overheating of long positions in the euro, which is confirmed by the current stagnation in the market. The RSI D1 has crossed the 50 midline from the bottom up, which is an upward trend among traders.
The moving MA lines on Alligator H4 are directed upwards, which corresponds to an ascending cycle. Alligator D1 has an unstable rising signal, MA lines are directed upwards.
Expectations and prospects
In this situation, the area of the parity level can serve as a limit zone, along which the quote can form a range. Take note that this is a local manifestation of the price, and new speculative price jumps are expected.
As for price movements, if the price goes above 1.1050, it may lead to an update of the local high in October. While keeping the price below 0.9950 may lead to a move towards 0.9900-0.9850.
Complex indicator analysis in the short term has a variable signal due to price rollback-stagnation. In the intraday and medium-term periods, there is a signal to buy due to the inertial upward movement of the price.