GBP/USD: the plan for the American session on November 4 (analysis of morning deals).

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.1207 level and recommended entering the market there. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. The bears did not keep waiting long and continued actively selling the pound. The formation of a false breakdown at 1.1207 led to a good entry point into long positions, which resulted in an upward movement of more than 40 points, after which the bulls lost the initiative. In the afternoon, the technical picture changed only slightly.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need the following:

The strategy for the second half of the day is as follows: the entire focus will be on data on the unemployment rate in the United States and on the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in October this year. If unemployment rises and the number of employed sharply decreases, we buy the pound and expect a significant pair correction at the end of this week. If the data come out again better than economists' forecasts, at the same time, the unemployment rate will remain unchanged, and the number of employed will exceed the September figure, I advise you to continue selling the pound and wait for the monthly lows to be updated. In this scenario, only a false breakdown in the area of 1.1201, by analogy with what I discussed above, will give a buy signal with a return to the resistance of 1.1267 formed by yesterday's results. The breakdown of 1.1267, as well as the reverse test from top to bottom, will open the way to 1.1334, and there you can reach the resistance of 1.1416, which will block all yesterday's fall of the pair. This option will be possible only in the case of bad statistics for the United States. If GBP/USD falls and there are no buyers at 1.1201, which is most likely to happen, we may reach the minimum of 1.1139. Therefore, do not rush to enter the market. Only a false breakdown at 1.1139 will ensure the presence of major players. It is possible to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1066, or around the minimum of 1.1013, with the aim of correction of 30-35 points within a day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need the following:

The bears keep everything under their control, although they failed to gain a foothold below the 1.1207 level. But this does not matter much since, as I have already said, we have important statistics for the United States ahead of us. Even if the pound increases, the bears will surely manifest themselves in the nearest resistance area of 1.1267. Only a false breakdown at 1.1267 will give a sell signal based on the return of pressure on the pound and its movement down to the support of 1.1201. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range and strong statistics for the US will give an entry point to sell already to update the minimum of 1.1137. A more distant target will be the 1.1066 area, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.1267 in the afternoon, the demand for the pound may increase significantly. In this case, it will be possible to count on an upward movement to the maximum of 1.1334. Only a false breakout at this level forms an entry point into short positions in the expectation of a new downward movement of the pair. If there is no activity, there may be a jerk up to the maximum of 1.1416, where I advise selling GBP/USD immediately for a rebound, counting on the pair moving down by 30-35 points within a day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bear market's development.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1250 will act as resistance.

Description of indicators