Last week, bitcoin managed to break away from the $18,500 and rise in price by $2,000. However, from the point of view of the nature of the general movement, this moment did not affect the technical picture in any way. The cryptocurrency is still inside the side channel of $18,500-$24,350, and now it is moving not along the level of $18,500 but along $20,400. That's the difference. Therefore, all the conclusions that we made earlier remain valid. We still expect a new drop in cryptocurrency in the next few months and a new "bullish" trend in the longer term. True, the "bullish" trend may begin in a year or two because the Fed intends to keep rates at a high level for a long time. Inflation is falling too slowly, so it may take quite a few months for it to return to 2%. And the Fed will start thinking about easing monetary pressure on the economy only when inflation drops to at least 4%. All this time, as long as rates remain high, all risky assets may continue to experience market pressure.
By the way, the results of the penultimate Fed meeting this year will be announced tonight. Almost no one doubts that the key rate will rise again by 0.75%. For the "bitcoin," this is a "bearish" factor of a new fall. Of course, the cryptocurrency market may not react in any way to the rate increase or the "hawkish" rhetoric at the press conference. However, it reacted to the message about the purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk. So a reaction is also possible tonight. By the way, the "hawkish" rhetoric of Powell and other monetary committee members may weaken a little. The Fed is approaching the final rate level, above which it will no longer grow. Today, it can reach 4%, and the value the regulator aims for is 4.75%. Therefore, in the speeches of Powell and the company, "dovish" notes may begin to be traced that it is time to reduce the pace of tightening and then complete this cycle altogether. Thus, some market participants may "see" in such rhetoric a reason to start buying risky assets, including bitcoin. But in any case, until the price is fixed above $ 24,350, we do not expect a new "bullish" trend to begin.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" cannot overcome the level of $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci) for several months. Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unclear how much time bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding deals. Overcoming the $18,500 level will open the way for $12,426. Bounces from $18,500 can still be used for small purchases.