The European currency and the pound remain at very low prices against the dollar. Although the threat of recession is present in the United States and the European Union, and inflation is high here and there, the market is more willing to buy the dollar than the euro. From this, I can conclude that the American economy attracts investors much better than the European one. Let me remind you that the European economy is threatened not just by a recession but by an energy crisis. As many experts say, Europe has managed to fill its gas storage facilities by 90+%, but this is not enough to survive the winter painlessly. Ordinary consumers, enterprises, and government agencies will have to save money. The Europeans, whose economic culture is much more developed than many other nations, do not see this as a particular problem. Of course, there are always those who oppose it, but most Europeans do not see anything wrong with the fact that they will have to save energy this winter. In the end, it's not just about saving for the good of the country, but about saving for the sake of reducing your electricity and heating bills.
Nevertheless, some experts have already stated that industrial production volumes may fall this winter, and the "savings plan" success will also depend on whether the European Commission can agree on gas supplies in sufficient volumes from other countries. Thus, I believe the European economy is under threat, but the American one is not. America has no problems with energy resources, and the only problem with prices: high inflation. And the Fed is actively working on this problem, which has long made reducing inflation a top priority rather than maintaining economic growth. This is understandable; the American economy is strong and occupies first place globally. The loss of 1-2% of GDP will not be a problem for her. But the highest inflation in 40 years is a serious societal problem, resulting in serious political problems.
Remember that after Donald Trump's departure, the Republicans do not own a majority in any of the chambers of Congress and, of course, would like to regain control of at least one of them. However, the Democrats, led by Joe Biden, do not want to allow this, so they will do everything possible to ensure that their voters in the next parliamentary elections are satisfied with the work of the Democratic Party. To do this, it is necessary to reduce inflation to acceptable values and avoid a fall in the labor market and an increase in unemployment. The unemployment rate in the United States remains at its lowest level in 50 years, and the labor market regularly creates new jobs. So there is only one problem left – inflation. This means that the Fed will continue to raise the interest rate, which is much more important for the market, given the problems in the European economy, than the ECB's rate hike. I believe the demand for the US currency may start to grow again.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section continues but can end at any time. At this time, the instrument can build a new impulse wave, so I advise selling with targets near the calculated mark of 0.9397, which equates to 423.6% by Fibonacci, by the MACD reversals "down." I urge caution, as it is unclear how much longer the overall decline of the instrument will continue.