Bitcoin remains within the sideways range of 18,763 - 20,381, continuing to bounce cautiously from its support level.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to move in line with the US stock market, traders are carefully analyzing trends in the S&P 500 index to understand what the outlook for the main cryptocurrency is during a bear market.
The open and haunting market question about the bottom of the bearish cycle and the prospects for recovery continues to be actively discussed in the circles of analysts and well-known experts. They are looking for support, including in correlation with the stock market.
Morgan Stanley CIO and bear market expert Michael J. Wilson predicts that the US stock market could see a short-term 16% rally. However, a rally will only occur if there is no capitulation of income or a formal recession.
Wilson believes that a short-term recovery in the US stock market is possible as the S&P 500 tests the 200-week moving average (WMA) amid higher rates and worsening macroeconomic conditions.
Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin remains below $20,000 and the 200-WMA of the main cryptocurrency is near the $23,000 level. Although, there have been several bear market rallies since the BTC price fell below $20,000 in June. However, the bulls were unable to maintain their strength and the bears took over, pushing the price of bitcoin back down below $20,000.
Moreover, the price of BTC has not been able to surpass the 200-WMA after a short-term rise in August. Wilson is known as the bearish voice of Wall Street. He correctly predicted the fall this year. But despite maintaining his overall negative long-term stance against the stock market, he sees upside potential of 16% from current levels.
"While this seems like an awfully big move, it will be in line with the bear market rally this year and in previous years." The cryptocurrency market is waiting for the next Fed rate hikeTraders are waiting for the Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting on November 2, which could potentially stimulate the market over the next few months. While fears of a recession continue to mount, the Fed maintains its hawkish stance to curb inflation.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike is now 95.4%, while the dollar index is growing around 113.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's Wilson believes that inflation has already reached its peak. Moreover, the Fed may decide to raise the rate by 50 basis points, despite the fact that the core consumer price index has jumped to a 40-year high.
Companies are reducing positions in bitcoinsWhile the technical picture is clear, as well as short-term scenarios for the main cryptocurrency, let's look at the market from the other side.
Over the past two years, a number of public and private companies, exchange-traded products (ETP) and countries have added bitcoin to their balance. However, over the last nine months of 2022, the number of bitcoins stored in these types of treasury bonds has decreased by 57,481 BTC, which is about $1.1 billion at today's exchange rate.
As of October 17, 2022, bitcoin is on the balance of 65 companies, ETP and countries. The data is taken from the list of treasury obligations of bitcoins, which contains the current reserves of the main cryptocurrency in publicly traded and private companies, ETP and countries.
As of September 8, 2022, the bitcoin treasury list indicates that approximately 65 of the aforementioned types of organizations own approximately 1,443,925 BTC or 6.876% of the 21 million limited supply. Although the balance is a large amount, 57,481 BTC worth $1.1 billion have been removed from the list of bitcoin treasuries since the beginning of 2022.
1.44 million BTC in treasury bonds are worth approximately $27.76 billion today, based on the current value of the spot market. The data shows that at the beginning of 2022, 65 public and private companies, ETP and countries owned 1,501,406 BTC.
How many BTC does Tesla have left?At that time, 1,501 million BTC was worth $63.25 billion at the exchange rate on January 2, 2022. The biggest change over the past nine months has been Tesla's balance sheet, as a result of which 32,177 BTC were withdrawn from the company's treasury.
Once Tesla had 42,902 BTC, and today there are 10,725 BTC in the company's treasury. 32,177 BTC represent 55.98% of the 57,481 BTC erased from the list of bitcoin treasuries since the beginning of the year.
While firms like Tesla have been getting rid of BTC, the list also shows several companies increasing their holdings. For example, on January 2, 2022, Microstrategy had 124,391 BTC, and today the company owns approximately 130,000 BTC.
The Microstrategy cache has grown by 4.51% since the beginning of the year. Tesla's balance sheet, on the other hand, has shrunk by about 75% of its bitcoin assets.
Who has the most BTC?The largest treasury holder in the list of treasury bitcoin is an ETP managed by Grayscale Investments.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust owns 643,572 BTC, which corresponds to $12.37 billion at today's exchange rate.
Four organizations owning more than 100,000 BTC include Bitcoin Trust from Grayscale (643,000), Microstrategy (130,000), Mt Gox (141,000) and Block.one (140,000). Only these four organizations dispose of 1,054,000 BTC out of 1.44 million BTC owned by 65 organizations.
Despite the removal and balances of 57,481 BTC since January 2, the list has grown since July 17, 2022, as the number of BTC stored in treasury bonds was about 1,325,396 BTC. With 1.44 million bitcoins stored today, approximately 120,000 BTC have been added to balances since July 17th.