In previous articles, we have already figured out why bitcoin will likely continue declining. This is supported by technical, fundamental, and the current geopolitical situation. Recently, the geopolitical tension has begun to subside again, but this state of affairs should not mislead traders and investors. The fact is that the geopolitical conflict is already at its most "hot" point. And this is no longer a Ukrainian-Russian issue but a confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation. All the sanctions the parties could impose against each other have already been implemented. Trade between the Russian Federation and the European Union ceases to exist. World leaders are already openly discussing nuclear strikes and their readiness to press the "red button." Therefore, from our point of view, the situation remains stable but difficult. And the fact that we don't get a new negative on geopolitics daily means a lot. This is a global sphere, and everything does not happen quickly here. As it turned out, it is possible to destroy relationships that have been developed for decades in 7-8 months, and how much time will it take to restore these relationships, if it is still possible?
Thus, Bitcoin and its brothers remain in danger because of the complex "foundation" and the complex geopolitics. At the same time, American billionaire and investor Ray Dalio predicts a global financial and economic crisis in which confidence and demand for cryptocurrencies will fall to record lows. The founder of Bridgewater Associates believes that the global economy has already entered a new crisis and will only worsen in the coming years. For more than six months, there has been a process of converting national currencies into the dollar as the most stable currency. Despite the record inflation in the United States for 40 years, investors still transfer their assets to the dollar, whose economy continues to make the best impression. Mr. Dalio believes that investors will continue to avoid investing in the riskiest sphere of cryptocurrencies, trying to choose instruments with no risk of serious losses.
If we look at the prospect of the next 12 calendar months, we agree with Ray Dalio. The first nine months of 2022 showed that the dollar could grow even if the Fed and any other central bank raised rates synchronously. This is because the dollar has the highest level of globalization among all other currencies. The current geopolitical situation forces investors to run away from risk, so only the dollar has been growing in recent months. As for the geopolitical conflict, we would not like to consider the worst-case scenario, but even if it does not come to that, there are no positive prospects for ending the conflict in the near future.