On the 4-hour TF, bitcoin continues to move inside the side channel of $18,500-$24,350, which is not surprising. This week, another attempt was made to overcome the $18,500 level after the published US inflation report. The quotes of "bitcoin" fell sharply, but the bears again failed to push through the specified level, and the cryptocurrency returned to the area "just above $ 18,500." This is already the 15th attempt to overcome the $18,500 level. However, it should also be noted that cryptocurrency is no longer moving away from this level. If earlier it could show growth to the upper border of the side channel, now it bounces back by a maximum of $1000-1500. The descending channel also remains relevant, but it may suffer the fate of the trend line on the 24-hour TF. If the quotes consolidate above the descending channel within the current flat, this can hardly be considered a signal to buy. The price will remain within the side channel. A certain growth can be counted on, but it is unlikely to be strong.
Meanwhile, more than a year has passed since El Salvador made bitcoin its legal tender. According to economists, no miracle happened. The country remains extremely poor. Only 65% of its residents have a smartphone with Internet access, and only 30% of the population has access to financial services. Recall that the government of El Salvador was counting on an "economic boom," but this did not happen. It was expected that Salvadorans, who work abroad, would send money to their homeland to their families in bitcoins, as it is cheaper and more convenient. But reality shows that the country's population still prefers to use the good old US dollar for calculations.
The same goes for business. Although companies can accept payment in bitcoins, only 20% of companies use this opportunity. The share of people using bitcoin in calculations among the population is even lower. International investors are not eager to invest in the country's economy, which now depends on the most unstable instrument. Since President Nayib Bukele made "bitcoin" a state means of payment and invested several billion dollars in it, the price of the crypto asset has sunk by 60%. Most Salvadorans who received a state bonus of $30 in bitcoin withdrew this amount and never entered the Chivo crypto wallet again. Experts believe that this whole experiment cost the state $375 billion.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes for "bitcoin" continue to move sideways. We believe the decline will continue in the medium term, but we must wait for the price to consolidate below the $17,582-$18,500 area. If this happens, the first target for the fall will be a level of $12,426. The rebound from the level of $18,500 (or $17,582) can be used for small purchases, but be careful – we still have a downward trend.