Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for October 14. COT report. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. The British pound is rushing to victory.

The GBP/USD currency pair showed a powerful upward movement on Thursday, which was absolutely illogical in terms of the fundamental and macroeconomic background. However, this may be the main point - traders are finally ready to buy the pound, despite the disappointing "foundation" and geopolitics. If so, then the growth can continue at least another 400-500 points up. As for the illogicality of the movement, in the morning there was not a single important event or report in either the UK or the US. That is, the pound immediately began to grow, it is not clear why. Further, the US inflation report was published during the US trading session, which was supposed to provoke, rather, the fall of the pair and the growth of the dollar, and not vice versa. Therefore, it is difficult for us to even say how the market interpreted US inflation, what conclusions it made. The pound, thus, once again showed a fairly strong will to win and came one step closer to completing the global downward trend. But at the same time, we are not sure that the fall will end there, after all, there are many factors that can pull the pound back down.

Quite a lot of trading signals were generated yesterday, but some of them were blatantly false or it was impossible to work them out. The first buy signal near the Kijun-sen line could be worked out. The price went up about 130 points, and it had to be closed manually before the release of the inflation report. The next signal is a consolidation below 1.1212 – we would be wary of working it out, as a "gap" has formed on the chart. The last buy signal in the form of overcoming 1.1212 could theoretically be worked out, however, it was still formed quite late in time. A strong upward movement made it possible to reach the level of 1.1354 and pass another 130 points in just an hour.

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed minimal changes. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 17,700 long positions and 14,600 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,100, which is not a lot for the pound. We could assume that the actions of major players and the movement of the pound have finally begun to coincide, but the pound has already begun a new round of decline, which risks transforming into a continuation of the global downward trend. The net position indicator has been growing slightly over the past weeks, but the mood of the big players remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). And, if we recall the situation with the euro, then there are big doubts that based on the COT reports, we can expect a strong growth of the pair. How can you count on it if the market buys the dollar more than the pound? The non-commercial group now has a total of 91,000 shorts and 42,000 longs open. The difference, as we see, is still very large. The euro cannot show growth if the major players are bullish, and the pound will suddenly be able to grow if the mood is bearish? We remain skeptical about the long-term growth of the British currency, although there are still certain technical reasons for this.

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 14. "That's all folks". US inflation fell to 8.2%.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 14. The Bank of England is preparing for a new powerful rate hike. The pound rushed right off the bat without waiting for US inflation data.

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on October 14. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

The pound/dollar pair once again left the downward channel on the hourly timeframe, and at the same time overcame the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. On the 24-hour TF, the price still managed to stay above the critical line, so the pair can now go up another 400-600 points. However, we remind you that the foundation and geopolitics remain complex, which means that long positions should be treated carefully. On October 14, we highlight the following important levels: 1.0538, 1.0930, 1.1212, 1.1354, 1.1442, 1.1649. Senkou Span B (1.1016) and Kijun-sen (1.1141) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on positions. There will be no interesting events in the UK on Friday, and only a report on retail sales and consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in America. The reaction to these reports is unlikely to be strong, but strong movements may persist at night and in the morning, as the Europeans can also work out the US inflation report.

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.