How to trade EUR/USD on October 14? Simple tips for beginners.

The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday, oddly enough, continued to trade in the same flat. Volatility increased compared to the previous days, but the pair still traded mostly sideways. Recall that the most important report of the week was published on Thursday - inflation in the US. It turned out that the consumer price index in September slowed down to 8.2% y/y. After the release of this report, the dollar rose by 110 points, which, from our point of view, is absolutely logical, since the slowdown in inflation amounted to only 0.1%. Thus, the probability of a new Federal Reserve rate hike at the next meeting by 0.75% has grown today to almost 100%. This is great news for the US currency, because the more monetary policy tightens, the more the dollar can rise. Given the fact that the euro/dollar remains near its 20-year lows, we continue to believe that the fall will continue. Moreover, today the local lows of this week were broken and updated, and the geopolitical and fundamental backgrounds remain clearly not in favor of the euro.

The move was almost perfect on the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday. The pair grew slightly in the morning, then collided with the level of 0.9748 and fell exactly to the level of 0.9636. Naturally, this fall, which occurred in 5 minutes, was provoked by the US inflation report, and not by a technical signal. Nevertheless, novice traders could have time to work out this signal, since it formed half an hour before the release of the report itself. Naturally, it was necessary to secure the deal and set Stop Loss above the level of 0.9753. The movement could be very strong, and in which direction it was impossible to predict in advance. Therefore, novice traders could also decide not to take risks. The second buy signal in the form of a rebound from the level of 0.9636 could also be worked out, as it was very accurate. As a result, we managed to earn about 84 points on the first deal, and about 30 points on the second one. The long position had to be closed manually in the late afternoon.

The pair maintains a downward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, despite settling above the descending trend line, but at the same time it has been trading in an absolute flat for four days already. Trading is inconvenient now. We believe that the pair may continue to move lower and renew its 20-year lows in the near future. The euro once again shows its unpreparedness for serious growth. On the 5-minute TF on Friday it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9554, 0.9636, 0.9748-0.9753, 0.9845, 0.9877, 0.9952. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. No major events are scheduled in the EU on Friday, while the US will publish a report on retail sales and consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. We believe that there will be no reaction to these data, or it will be very weak.

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.