Bitcoin continues to trade almost absolutely flat. A few days ago, it encountered a descending trend line on the 24-hour TF on its way up, and since then, it has been gradually falling, following exactly along this line. At the moment, the cryptocurrency has come close to the level of $ 18,500, from which it has bounced many times. In our practice, if an asset tries to overcome a significant level for a long time, it will eventually overcome it. And this is another factor in favor of the further fall of bitcoin. We have already said that almost all indicators indicate the continuation of the downward trend. And even if there is an overcoming of the trend line on the 24-hour TF or the descending channel on the 4-hour, this will not change anything. In this case, bitcoin will remain inside the side channel of $18,500–$ 24,350, and if its lower limit is overcome, it will continue to fall.
Of the next important news and events that may impact the movement of the first cryptocurrency in the world, we can only note tomorrow's report on inflation in the United States. However, unlike other analysts, we do not believe this report will affect the Fed's actions at the next meeting. If inflation shows an increase or absence of a fall by the end of September, this will only be an additional incentive for the Fed to maintain its aggressive attitude. If inflation slows by a few tenths of a percent, then we can assume everything is going according to plan: the Fed raises the rate, and inflation decreases for the third month. If there is a strong decrease in inflation, this will not be a reason for the Fed's refusal to raise the rate at the next meeting by 0.75%. Inflation has not slowed so much that the Fed is starting to think about softening the "hawkish" approach. Therefore, by and large, tomorrow's inflation report should not have a strong impact on the cryptocurrency market. But at the same time, this report can become a trigger for the market, which has been pushing around the $18,500 level for a long time and sooner or later must either overcome it or significantly move up, at least to the $24,350 level.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the cue ball could not overcome the level of $ 24,350, but they also could not yet overcome the level of $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unclear how much time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will set you back $12,426.