The trading week began with a real stagnation, which is largely caused by the complete absence of any macroeconomic data. However, today there seems to be hope for a way out of this state, in the form of data on the labor market in the UK. Nevertheless, immediately after the report was released, despite the decline in the unemployment rate from 3.6% to 3.5%, the pound clearly began to show a downward trend. It's all about employment, which decreased by 109,000. Although it seems like it should have grown by 12,000. But what is most surprising is that employment data were published for July, and unemployment data for August. Which is why there is a complete bewilderment with the unemployment data. How could it have decreased if employment had decreased significantly a month before? There is no logical explanation for this, which provokes distrust of unemployment data. There is a high probability that in just a month the unemployment data will be revised for the worse. And significantly. This puts pressure on the pound and contributes to its gradual weakening.
Employment Change (UK):
The GBPUSD currency pair adheres to a downward trend from the 1.1410/1.1525 area. As a result, bears have already managed to weaken the pound by more than 450 points. Relative to the previous day, the quote was conditionally standing in one place with a horizontal range within 100 points.
The RSI H4 and D1 technical instruments are steadily moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates the prevailing downward mood among market participants.
The moving MA lines on Alligator H4 and D1 are directed downwards, which indicates an increase in the signal of a descending cycle.
Expectations and prospects
In this situation, the stagnation was formed near the support level of 1.1000. Thus, for a bearish scenario, the quote needs to stay below this level for at least a four-hour period. In this case, there will be a subsequent stage of recovery of dollar positions.
As for the bullish scenario, in order to consider it, the quote needs to stay above the 1.1120 mark. With this outcome, a move towards 1.1220 is possible.
Complex indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods have a variable signal due to stagnation. While the indicators in the medium term indicate a downward trend.