On the 4-hour TF, it is even better to see that recently, bitcoin has been moving exclusively sideways, with minimal volatility and exactly along the $18,500 level. Several attempts to "peel off" from the $18,500 level did not lead to anything. The moment of truth is approaching in both timeframes that we are analyzing. On the 24-hour chart, the price has already collided with the trend line, and on the 4-hour chart, it may collide with the upper limit of the descending channel in the coming days. Thus, in the near future, either the fall in quotes should resume after a three-month break, or the trend line and the descending channel will be recognized as irrelevant. Instead, only the side channel of $18,500- $24,350 will remain.
As we have said in previous articles, the market is waiting for a major event to move the course from the dead point. Therefore, we do not see much point in analyzing ordinary events in the cryptocurrency market because they still do not affect the movement of bitcoin in any way. Experts are divided into two camps: some predict the rapid growth of bitcoin with the conquest of new highs, and others – a new fall of the cryptocurrency. Nothing changes.
From our point of view, we need to wait for a really important event that will force market participants to trade more actively. As you can see, no one is eager to buy bitcoin at a bargain price, but no one is in a hurry to sell, as they doubt its ability to continue falling. We believe the next Fed meeting may move the cue ball from its place. It will take place in a few weeks, but bitcoin has been trading flat for over three months, so we can only wait.
Also, geopolitical news should not be written off, although bitcoin has not been particularly responsive to it in recent months. The conflict between the West and the Russian Federation may intensify in the coming days. A G-7 meeting will occur today or tomorrow, where a new attack on Ukrainian cities will be discussed. A number of decisions may be made on a global scale. The situation may escalate to the limit if new strikes are carried out on the Crimean Bridge. Also, do not forget that the only working gas pipeline from Russia to Europe passes through the territory of Ukraine. If sabotage was carried out in the North Sea and on the territory of the Russian Federation, then it is even easier to do it on the territory of Ukraine.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes for "bitcoin" continue to move sideways. We believe the decline will continue in the medium term, but we need to wait for the price to consolidate below the area of $17,582-$18,500. If this happens, the first target for the fall will be a level of $ 12,426. The rebound from the level of $18,500 (or $17,582) can be used for small purchases, but be careful – we still have a downward trend.