Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
The test of 0.9908 happened when the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. Sadly, there was not much price decrease as the pair resumed falling after moving by just 15 pips. A little later, a similar test took place, and this time the quote fell down by as much as 40 pips.
Purchases from 0.9864 led to an upward correction by almost 20 pips.
The minutes of the meeting that the ECB released yesterday did not help euro much as it indicated a further increase in interest rates and tightening of monetary policy. Data on the volume of industrial orders in Germany was also disappointing, as well as the retail trade report in the Eurozone.
A number of reports are scheduled to be released today, such as the change in the volume of industrial production and change in the volume of retail trade in Germany. Most likely, the reports will be negative, which will put pressure on the euro. Then, in the afternoon, a further decline could occur if employment data in the US turns out to be better than forecasts. But if the labor market sags seriously, risk appetite will surge, which will lead to an increase in EUR/USD. The speech of FOMC member John Williams will be ignored by the market.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 0.9808 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9878. Growth will occur if statistics from the US turn out lower than expected. That will weaken expectations of a further increase in Fed interest rates.
Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 0.9763, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9808 and 0.9878.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 0.9763 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 0.9720. Pressure may return if statistics from the US exceed expectations.
Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 0.9808, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 0.9763 and 0.9720.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.