Bitcoin, contrary to our expectations, again bounced off the level of $18,500 and began to grow. However, it has already become clear that this growth will not last long, because the cryptocurrency quickly returned to the level of $18,500 again. And now it is again trading exactly along it, choosing the right moment to overcome it. We said earlier that the more times price tries to break a level, the more likely it is to eventually break it. Pay attention to the chart below. If we forget for a second the fact that the price has been inside the horizontal channel for several months, we saw a sluggish correction from $18,500 to $24,350, after which the quotes returned to their original positions. That is, at this time, bitcoin is at the local "bottom". And we know from the currency market that trends do not end slowly and imposingly, with a three-month movement along their bottom. We need a sharp rebound, we need strong buy signals, we need breakouts of important levels and lines. There is none of that now. Therefore, we are in favor of the continuation of bitcoin's decline.
The last few days have been of interest to cryptocurrency traders only for a few speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee. Recall that the Fed's monetary policy is one of the key factors in the fall of bitcoin in 2022. If until 2022 the central bank was actively pumping up the economy with freshly printed money and stimulating it with ultra-low rates, now the situation is just the opposite. For example, Neil Kashkari said that the Fed should continue to tighten policy until inflation slows down substantially and substantially. He noted that in the 1970s the Fed made a mistake by starting to lower the rate when inflation began to slow down and the economy "cooled", "considering its mission accomplished." After that, inflation began to rise again, so now, in the 2020s, a new approach is required. It lies in the fact that the rate will grow for several more months, and then for a long period of time it will remain at maximum values. He also noted that the risk of "going too far" exists, but the Fed believes that the current "moderately aggressive mood" is in line with current goals and objectives. Such rhetoric is negative for bitcoin.
Bitcoin quotes failed to overcome the level of $24,350 on the 24-hour timeframe, but they also cannot yet overcome the level of $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a horizontal channel and it is not known how much more time bitcoin will spend in it. We recommend not to hurry with opening positions. It is much better to wait for the price to leave this channel, and only then open the corresponding deals. Overcoming the level of $18,500 will open the way to the level of $12,426. You can also use rebound signals (from the trend line or the upper/lower border of the channel).