Early in the New York session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the 21 SMA and above the 200 EMA. We can see on the 4-hour chart that since the last bearish cycle gold has rebounded towards 38.2% of Fibonacci. This is a sign that it could resume the bearish cycle if it consolidates below 2,030 (21 SMA).
This week, there will be strong volatility with the US inflation data. Gold is likely to drop towards the 1,984 area (200 EMA) or we could expect a rally towards the 2,062 area (+1/8 Murray).
Inflation data below expectations could weaken the US dollar and therefore could also weaken 10-year treasury yields. This would give a strong boost to gold.
Since April 17, gold has been trading within an uptrend channel. Over the past few hours, it has been testing this area. If it trades below 2,031, it could drop towards the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1,993.
In the event that gold breaks and consolidates above 2,035, we could expect a pullback towards the 61.8% Fibonacci around 2,048. This level could also be seen as a signal to sell, with targets at 1,990.
Above the key level of 2,050, gold could resume its bullish cycle and could reach 2,062. Ultimately, we could wait for it to reach the high of 2,077.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 2,031, with targets at 2,020 and 2,000. The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal which supports our bearish strategy.