The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in the same sideways movement as four days before. As you can see, the market absolutely does not want to take risks and "run ahead of the locomotive" at all, but prefers to calmly wait for the Federal Reserve meeting. By the way, there will most likely be nothing unexpected at this meeting, since there is almost a 100% chance that the rate will be raised by 0.75% for the third consecutive time, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the entire organization as a whole will remain hawkish after how US inflation began to slow down at the pace of its slowdown. Thus, a 0.75% rate hike is definitely positive for the dollar, but everything will, as always, depend on the market itself. Will it be happy with the next large-scale increase in the key rate? We would say that maybe not immediately, but we will see a new growth of the dollar. The fact that the pair continues to trade near its 20-year lows suggests that bears are not closing short positions and bulls are not opening longs. And the Fed meeting is unlikely to change this alignment. Consequently, there were no grounds for the euro's growth.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pairThe situation with trading signals was very sad on the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, but it was a little better on Tuesday. Only one sell signal was generated during the day, which is even good, since the price has been in a flat for five days, and in a flat, false signals are often formed that cause losses. The pair settled below the area of 1.0020-1.0034, after which it managed to drop almost to the level of 0.9952, only 3 points short of reaching it. Novice traders could decide for themselves whether to close positions near this level, since in fact there was no buy signal. In any case, late in the evening, the price did not move far from the level of 0.9952, so the short position could still be closed in profit of at least 30 points.
How to trade on Wednesday:The pair shows that it is ready to continue falling on the 30-minute timeframe, but instead, we are still seeing a flat. There is reason to believe that it will end tomorrow, when the results of the Fed meeting will be announced. However, this will happen late in the evening, and until then the pair may remain inside the flat. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9877, 0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156, 1.0221. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. In fact, the only event of the day will be the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. This event is scheduled for the late evening, so novice traders in any case will have to leave the market before it starts. The market's reaction to this event can be very strong, so you need to be prepared for major movements at night and in the morning the next day.
Basic rules of the trading system:1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.