The probability of quotes leaving this channel through its lower border is growing daily. As recently as yesterday, the cryptocurrency tested this level for strength for the fifth time. This time, the bounce up was only $ 1,200, much less than in previous times. We said earlier that the more times the same level is tested, the higher the probability of overcoming it. Therefore, we expect a breakthrough at this level this week with a further fall of bitcoin to $ 12,426. It is also worth noting that a drop to the specified level can happen quickly, within 4-5 days. You can see where the last round of falling quotes began, and the cryptocurrency was also flat for several weeks, after which it fell by $ 15,000 in just eight days.
And this week, the fundamental background will also openly contribute to such a development of events. We have often said that tightening the Fed's monetary policy leads to a decrease in demand for risky assets. And it is very difficult to find a riskier asset than bitcoin. Moreover, cryptocurrency has stood in one place in the last three months. Thus, if the rate increases by 0.75% on Wednesday, the probability of a new drop in the "bitcoin" will be 70%. If the rate increases by 1.00%, the probability of a new fall will be 90%. Recall that technical analysis should not be ignored even with the most unambiguous fundamental background. If the $18,500 level is not overcome, then we may well see a new round of upward movement, even if the Fed raises the rate by 2%. Therefore, raising the rate and overcoming the $18,500 level should coincide or complement each other. Then we will get a strong signal for new sales. As for the longer-term prospects, the Fed will complete the cycle of raising rates sooner or later and will begin to reduce them gradually. It is unlikely that this will happen in 2022, so we can count on tangible growth only next year. And it is very difficult to say to what values the "protection against high inflation" will have time to fall.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they also could not yet overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel, and it is unknown how much time Bitcoin will spend on it. We recommend not rushing to open positions. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will take you to the $12,426 level. You can also use rebound signals (from the trend line or the upper or lower border of the channel).