For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking looks quite complicated at the moment but still does not require any clarification. The upward wave, built between May 13 and May 27, does not fit into the overall wave picture, but it can still be considered corrective as part of the downward trend section. Thus, it can now be concluded that the downward section of the trend continues its construction. At the moment, we have completed waves a, b, c, and d, so we can assume that the instrument is inside wave e. Inside this wave, internal waves are being viewed, and I can assume that wave 4 in e is being built now. If this is true, the decline of the quote will resume within the framework of wave 5 in e. However, in this case, the wave markings of the euro and the pound will cease to be similar because, with a high degree of probability, the construction of a downward trend section for the euro has been completed. I suggest focusing on the next moment. Wave 4 should not be too strong. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 161.8% Fibonacci level will mean that this is exactly the correction wave inside e. In this case, we should expect another downward wave in the current trend area.
The gas crisis concerns the UK too.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 90 basis points on September 12. However, the British pound had at least a ghostly reason for such a movement. In the morning, a package of statistics was released in Britain, which included GDP and industrial production. There were other reports, but they were less important for the market than the first two. However, I cannot call these reports "positive." July GDP grew in line with market expectations, and industrial production was significantly worse than expected. The demand for British began to grow at night; that is, the market was not particularly waiting for British statistics. At the same time, demand for the European currency was also growing, for which there was no important economic news today. Therefore, I believe that the British reports had only a small impact on the market mood.
But in the case of the energy crisis, on the threshold of which the European Union and the United Kingdom are standing, I do not quite understand how the market can rejoice now. Whatever London and Brussels do, there is a market price for gas, oil, and other energy resources. If any country could easily influence prices and make them convenient for themselves, it would not be a market. Within a single country, the government can take several measures to reduce domestic fuel and energy prices, but this will only increase the burden on the budget. London announced at the beginning of the year that it would no longer buy oil and gas in Russia, but the prices for these energy resources are the same for the whole world. Will he buy them in other countries? What will change from this?
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument suggests a continued decline in demand for the pound. I advise now selling the instrument with targets near the estimated mark of 1.1112, equivalent to 200.0% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "down," but this mark is quite far away, so the instrument may not reach it. Inside the fifth wave, it is necessary to sell more cautiously since the downward section of the trend can end at any moment. A successful attempt to break through the 1,1708 mark will cancel the sales option.
The picture is similar to the euro/dollar instrument at the higher wave scale. The same ascending wave that does not fit the current wave pattern, the same five waves down after it. Thus, one thing is unambiguous – the downward section of the trend continues its construction and can turn out to be almost any length.