In the morning article, I turned your attention to 1.0185 and recommended making decisions with this level in focus. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and try to figure out what actually happened. The euro maintained its rapid rise, which began in the Asian session. It quickly recovered to 1.0185. A false breakout of this level gave a sell signal. However, the price dropped only by about 20 pips. At the time of writing the article, a sell signal remained in force. Yet, the technical outlook has changed significantly.
Conditions for opening long positions on EUR/USD:
Traders increased purchases of the euro following the statements made by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Given that he is one of the most hawkish ECB policymakers, his remarks about more clear steps to cap inflation facilitated a drastic rise in the euro. Notably, there were no fundamental factors for its growth. Last week, the ECB aggressively raised the interest rate by 75 basis points in an attempt to tame the highest inflation on record. It also helped the ECB narrow the rate gap with the Fed, pushing the US dollar down. The economic outlook for the afternoon is empty. This is why bulls are likely to remain in control. In case of correction during the American session, it would be wise to buy the euro after a false breakout of the nearest support level of 1.0046 that was formed in the morning. It will provide an entry point with the prospect of the continuation of the uptrend. Notably, it is gaining momentum every day. The nearest target will be the 1.0194 level. A breakout and a downward test of 1.0194 will force bears to close their Stop Loss orders. It may also give an additional buy signal. Hence, the pair could jump to 1.0221. A more distant target will be the resistance level of 1.0243 where I recommend locking in profits. If EUR/USD declines in the afternoon and bulls show no activity at 1.0146, the pair may repeat Friday's scenario, dropping sharply in the afternoon. If so, bulls are likely to postpone long positions. The optimal scenario for opening long positions will be a false breakout of 1.0107. You can buy EUR/USD immediately at a bounce from 1.0070 or a low of 1.0039, keeping in mind an upward intraday correction of 30-35 pips.
Conditions for opening short positions on EUR/USD:
Bears entered the market after the pair reached a monthly high. They are now determined to push the price to the nearest support level of 1.0146. It is going to be their main goal for the afternoon. Given that there is no data, it will be quite difficult to do this. Given that the economic calendar is uneventful, it will be quite difficult to take the upper hand. In the case of another sharp jump, which is more likely, a false breakout of 1.0194 may generate an excellent sell signal. It may also trigger a larger downward correction at the beginning of the week. As I have mentioned above, the pivot level for opening short positions will be the support level of 1.0146. A breakout of this level will give an additional sell signal. Bulls will be forced to close their Stop Loss orders. The pair is likely to tumble to 1.0107. I recommend locking profits at this level. A more distant target will be the 1.0070 level. If EUR/USD climbs during the US session and bears show no energy at 1.0194, the upward trend will only strengthen. If so, it is better to postpone short positions to 1.0221 but only if a false breakout occurs. You can sell EUR/USD immediately at a bounce from a high of 1.0243 or 1.0267, keeping in mind a downward intraday correction of 30-35 pips.
COT report
The COT report from August 30 logged a drop in both short and long positions. A week ago, trading activity surged, but now it is gradually falling. This also signals a decrease in risk appetite after the release of the eurozone CPI data. The report unveiled a surge to a fresh high. The market sentiment also turned sour due to the ongoing energy crisis. Russia's halt in supplies through its key pipeline may cause another increase in energy prices this winter. If the predictions come true, inflation may show a considerable jump, thus forcing the ECB to raise interest rates more aggressively. This week, the ECB is going to announce its key rate decision, which may weaken the euro against the US dollar. Although a rate hike may stir up EU Treasury bond yields, there is also a likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth. That is why the euro will hardly recover in the medium term. The COT report revealed that the number of long non-commercial positions decreased by 8,567 to 202,258, whereas the number of short non-commercial positions decreased by 5,000 to 249,934. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position remained negative and dropped to -47,676 against -44,109. Apparently, bears are still holding the upper hand. Therefore, the euro is likely to fall even deeper. The weekly closing price inched up to 1.0033 from 0.9978.
Signals of technical indicators
Moving averages
EUR/USD is trading above 30- and 50-period moving averages, signaling further growth of the euro.
Remark. The author is analyzing the period and prices of moving averages on the 1-hour chart. So, it differs from the common definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
If the EUR/USD declines, the indicator's average border of 1.0070 will act as support.
Definitions of technical indicators
Moving average recognizes an ongoing trend through leveling out volatility and market noise. A 50-period moving average is plotted yellow on the chart.Moving average identifies an ongoing trend through leveling out volatility and market noise. A 30-period moving average is displayed as the green line.MACD indicator represents a relationship between two moving averages that is a ratio of Moving Average Convergence/Divergence. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. A 9-day EMA of the MACD called the "signal line".Bollinger Bands is a momentum indicator. The upper and lower bands are typically 2 standard deviations +/- from a 20-day simple moving average.Non-commercial traders - speculators such as retail traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Non-commercial long positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.The overall non-commercial net position balance is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.