The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement as a whole and it showed a slight increase on Friday. However, this growth is so small that it is not yet possible to speak of it as the beginning of a new upward trend in the medium term. A new uptrend line has been formed on the 30-minute time frame, but even this does not look very convincing, since its period is only three days. Already at the end of Friday and the trading week, a downward rollback was observed. In principle, a few tens of points down on Monday - and the pair will consolidate below this trend line. It should be noted that we consider the euro's growth at the end of the week to be absolutely natural. It should be remembered that the European Central Bank raised its key rate by 0.75% on Thursday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde promised that this increase would not be the last. Thus, the ECB's mood is becoming more and more hawkish and this factor should support the euro. Of course, we can recall the Bank of England, which has already raised the rate six consecutive times, while the pound has fallen and continues to fall. However, at least a small increase had to occur, and it did. As for macroeconomic statistics on Friday, there were none. The market continued to work out the results of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pairIt is clearly seen on the 5-minute timeframe that the pair changed direction several times on Friday, and a flat began in the US session. Thus, we cannot conclude that Friday's movements were not bad, therefore, it was difficult to trade. The first trading signal to sell was formed at the opening of the European session and immediately turned out to be false. The pair failed to go down even 10 points, the deal closed at a loss. The next buy signal should have been skipped, since at the time of its formation the price was already approaching the next level of 1.0123 - the "signal candle" turned out to be very powerful. The third signal on the account - to sell - made it possible for novice traders to win back morning losses, as the price dropped to the nearest target level of 1.0034. It turned out to earn about 20 points. All signals of rebounds from the level of 1.0034 should have been ignored. It was possible to work out the very first high, after which 15 points were passed up, so the deal was closed at Stop Loss at breakeven. In principle, it was impossible to take a loss on these signals, since the pair did not consolidate even once below the level of 1.0034.
How to trade on Monday:The pair has formed an upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, but it looks very weak at this time. If the upward movement continues for at least a few more days, then it will be possible to talk about certain prospects for the euro's growth. In the meantime, at any time, the price can go below the trend line. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. No important or simply interesting events are planned in the European Union and the United States on Monday. There may be reduced volatility and no trend movement. You need to be ready for this.
Basic rules of the trading system:1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.