EUR/USD analysis on September 10, 2022

The wave marking of the EUR/USD instrument remains acceptable. In the last few weeks, the instrument may well have completed the construction of a descending wave 5, but at the same time, this wave may take a much longer form. Five waves are visible inside wave 5, but the assumed wave 2 and the assumed wave 4 are very different in size. Therefore, I assume that the movement of the last few weeks is a wave 2 in 5, which has taken a three-wave form, and after which the decline in quotes will resume within wave 3 in 5. This scenario assumes a strong complication of the downward trend segment and a decrease in the instrument by at least 500 points. A lot now (and before) depends on the news background and the market's reaction to this news background. It's no secret that the background can be absolutely anything, but it's not the news that matters, but how the market interprets it and its expectations and forecasts. In the last year and a half, we have seen a constant decline in demand for the European currency, but the news background was not always so weak for the euro currency that the market sold it. For example, this week, the ECB raised its interest rate for the second time and made several statements that monetary policy would tighten at a high pace until the end of this year or a little longer. This is a "hawkish" signal to the market, but the European currency has not yet reacted with rapid growth to this signal. There may be no rapid growth at all because if my assumption about wave 2 in 5 is correct, then the decline in quotes should resume in the first few days of next week. It is important to see the market reaction to the next US inflation report. If the consumer price index continues to slow down, as the market expects, demand for the US currency may begin to decline amid expectations of a slowdown in the Fed's interest rate hike. However, Jerome Powell said during his recent speeches that the rate will continue to rise.

General conclusions.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of a downward trend section is still ongoing. I advise you to sell the instrument with targets near the calculated mark of 0.9397, equal to 423.6% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "down," counting on the continuation of wave construction 5. So far, I do not see any signals indicating this wave's completion.