EUR/USD: the plan for the American session on September 8 (analysis of morning deals). Euro returned to daily highs before the ECB decision

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 0.9982 level and recommended making decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The euro sank slightly in the first half of the day against the US dollar, which was an excellent reason to build up long positions in the continuation of the bull market, the development of which I expect after the ECB decides on interest rates. A false breakout at 0.9982 led to a buy signal, resulting in the pair growing by more than 30 points.

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In addition to all that data from the European Central Bank, reports on the weekly number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States are expected closer to the afternoon, as well as a speech by Jerome Powell. He will gradually begin to prepare the markets for another increase in interest rates by 0.75% at once, which can compensate for the growth of the euro, which is expected after the decision of the European regulator. In the case of a downward trend in the pair, as in the morning, the optimal scenario for buying again will be a false breakdown in the support area of 0.9982, which proved excellent in the first half of the day. This will give an entry point based on the continuation of the upward correction with the nearest target of 1.0029. Hawkish statements by European politicians, as well as a breakout and a top-down test of this range, will hit the bears' stop orders, which will form an additional signal to open long positions with the possibility of correction to the area of 1.0076. A more distant target will be the resistance of 1.0127, where I recommend fixing the profits. If EUR/USD declines in the afternoon and there are no buyers at 0.9982, the pressure on the pair will return. In this case, the optimal solution for opening long positions will be a false breakdown in the area of the 0.9949 minimum, where the moving averages are playing on the buyers' side. I advise buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from 0.9915, or even lower – around 0.9880, with an upward correction of 30–35 points within a day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

It all depends on the reaction of traders to the speech of the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. Her softer remarks on future monetary policy could put pressure back on the euro. At the same time, the main task of sellers remains to protect the nearest resistance level of 1.0029 since, having lost control of parity, the pressure on the euro may weaken. A false breakdown at this level will lead to an excellent sell signal to resume the bear market and reduce the euro to an area of 0.9982. A breakdown and consolidation below this range with a reverse test from the bottom up forms an additional sell signal with the demolition of buyers' stop orders and a larger drop in the pair to the area of 0.9949, where the moving averages pass. I recommend fixing profits there. A longer-range target will be at least 0.9915. The situation will change if there is an upward jump in EUR/USD during the American session and the absence of bears at 1.0029. In this scenario, I recommend postponing short positions to 1.0076, but only if a false breakdown is formed there. You can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the maximum of 1.0127 or even higher – from 1.0155 with a downward correction of 30–35 points.

Signals of indicators:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates further growth of the euro.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator, around 0.9999, will act as support.

Description of indicators