Yesterday, the euro cheered up during the US session, although the matter is moving towards the European Central Bank meeting, and it will be held today. Also, the US trade balance in July showed an increase from -80.9 billion dollars to -70.7 billion. The consensus forecast shows an increase in the main rate by 0.50%, that is, up to 1.00%. And in this case, we are waiting for the euro to fall, as in the closest example yesterday, when the Bank of Canada raised the rate by 0.75% (from 2.50% to 3.25%), but the Canadian dollar strengthened by only 32 points, and then on the fall of the dollar index by 0.60%, and it has won back half of this movement this morning. Only with a rate hike of 0.75%, we expect to see some revival of the bulls in the single currency, but it will not be long.
The first resistance to the euro is the MACD indicator line at 1.0070. Breaking this line may extend the correction to the target level of 1.0150.
The main scenario we assume is going down - the price goes under 0.9950 and further decline to 0.9850 and further to 0.9752. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator shows the intention to reverse downwards from the zero line for the second time.
The price sharply went above the MACD line and the Marlin Oscillator moved into the growth area on the four-hour chart. This is a signal for a possible continuation of the received momentum, but on such a powerful factor as a change in the central bank rate, the movement may turn out to be false. Therefore, we can only wait for all incoming data, not only from the release of the ECB, but also from further comments from its key figures (Lagarde, 15:15 London time).