The EUR/USD currency pair continued to remain in an impromptu horizontal channel on Tuesday. If yesterday we talked about the 0.9900-1.0020 channel, today it can be extended to 0.9900-1.0072. It turns out to be a fairly wide channel, and the movement inside it has a slight upward slope. Therefore, in fact, the pair has been in the channel for seven consecutive days, but still this movement can be considered an upward correction. This does not make it easier for either traders or the euro. The single currency continues to persistently show unwillingness or inability to correct against the dollar, which further convinces us that quotes will continue to fall, and a new update of 20-year lows will take place. However, we want to note that at this very moment the pound continues its fall, but the euro does not. Such dissimilarity in movements is surprising, since there were no important events or reports either in the US, EU or the UK during the first two trading days of the week. So why are two major pairs that normally move almost identical suddenly trading differently? We believe this is somewhat of an accident that will be fixed soon. If anyone continues to fall now, then it is the euro with its passive central bank.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pairThere were few trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, but first of all, take note that the pair spent about half of the daytime in an open flat. It was not immediately possible to identify it, but the price nevertheless settled twice above the area indicated by the golden rectangle, and twice below it. Since the signals were simply duplicated in the first and second cases, novice traders could open one long position and one short position. The long position did not bring any profit, as the price could not go in the right direction even by 15 points. Accordingly, the trade closed at a loss when the price settled below the 1.0020-1.0034 area. The signal to sell was better, after which the formation passed at least 30 points, which made it possible for beginners to win back the losses on the first, unsuccessful transaction. However, the pair's movements did not allow us to leave the market in the final profit. But at least there was no loss, which is also good, considering the horizontal channel on the hourly timeframe.
How to trade on Wednesday:The pair has decided not to resume the downward trend on the 30-minute timeframe right now. Instead, it decided to stay some more time inside the 0.9900-1.0072 horizontal channel. Thus, before overcoming any of the channel boundaries, a flat can be observed. It has always been very difficult to trade inside the flat, which is once again proved by today. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels 0.9900-0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. The European Union will publish a new report on inflation, and we have the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector in the US. The second report is insignificant, but the first one is important and can cause a strong market reaction.
Basic rules of the trading system:1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.