The GBP/USD pair started the day by once again updating its 2-year lows. Now the 2-year low is the level of 1.1648. After that, a round of upward correction began. But, if for the euro, we recall, the pair is in a horizontal channel, then the pound is in a downward trend, as evidenced by the downward channel. The price is also below it, which only signals the strength of the downward movement! The British currency managed to correct to the lower border of this channel. What will happen next is not yet clear, but one thing is clear - the downward trend continues, which means that the pound can continue to move to its 35-year lows around the 1.1400 level. So far, we do not see how the pound's fall can stop. There were no important fundamental or macroeconomic events either in the UK or in the US on Monday. The volatility was about 90 points, which is lower than for the euro/dollar pair, but still quite a lot!
5M chart of the GBP/USD pairThe pound/dollar pair showed good movements on the 5-minute timeframe during the day, but, unfortunately, novice traders failed to work out most of them. The problem was that there was not a single level below the previous 2-year low of 1.1716, so there was simply nothing to trade. We have added a new level (1.1648), however, for obvious reasons, it did not take part in the process of forming a signal. Thus, the entire movement of the European trading session was missed. The price overcame the level of 1.1716 only in the US session, and the buy signal turned out to be false. 20 points up after its formation was not passed, even taking into account the second buy signal - a completely inaccurate rebound from the level of 1.1716. And a little later, the pair consolidated below this level at all, so the best thing that novice traders could do was to close the deal manually, as the evening was approaching. However, they could still receive a small loss. As you can see, only good moves are not enough, you also need levels to trade on them. One good thing - the levels will appear as time passes.
How to trade on Tuesday:The pound/dollar pair continues to follow a downward trend on the 30-minute TF. The level of 1.1716 was easily overcome, so now there is no talk of a flat or a horizontal channel. Therefore, after the completion of the current correction, the pair may continue to fall. On the 5-minute TF on Tuesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.1648, 1.1716, 1.1755, 1.1793, 1.1863-1.1877, 1.1967. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events scheduled in America and the UK on Tuesday. However, as we can see, the pair still continues to trade rather volatilely, because 100 points is still a lot. A similar picture can be observed on Tuesday. So far, nothing indicates that the downward trend will end in the coming days.
Basic rules of the trading system:1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.