According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair is growing again on Thursday toward the corrective level of 323.6% (1.1883). On Tuesday, it failed to work out, and yesterday there were no attempts to work it out. Thus, the pair remains below the level of 1.1883 and within the downward trend corridor, which now characterizes traders' mood as "bearish." Over the past few days, the only thing that has changed is that the pair has stopped falling every day. However, the mood of traders has not changed, so I think the decline of the British dollar will continue. This morning, Germany released a report on GDP for the second quarter, which showed an increase of 0.1% QoQ. It is difficult for me even to call this value positive or negative. It is slightly better than traders' expectations, but an increase of 0.1% for the economy is almost the same as a lack of growth. Therefore, I don't think that today the European and British economies are growing because of this report.
The US will also release a GDP report today, which can be considered a little more important than in Germany. Traders expect the US economy to close in the red for the second quarter. This time, the economic decline may be 0.8%. I want to note that this will be the last, final estimate of the indicator for the second quarter, and the value of -0.8% is not a hypothesis or forecast. Previous estimates showed a decline in the economy of just that much. There should be no surprises associated with this report today. However, if the final value for the second quarter is different, then a small reaction of traders may follow. If it is large, then the reaction may be stronger. But this report is unlikely to affect the overall picture of the situation. Traders are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech at the economic forum in Jackson Hole, and want to understand what approach the Fed will take in September. From my point of view, Powell will not be able to surprise, but still, we do not know the content of the Fed president's speech. Therefore, surprises are possible in this case. We will not guess what Powell might say. Tomorrow, everything will become clear.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair dropped to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1709) and rebounded. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the British, and growth began toward the 1.2008 level. Fixing the pair's exchange rate below the level of 1.1709 will work in favor of the US currency and increase the likelihood of a further fall of the British pound. The CCI indicator is now brewing weak "bearish" divergences.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Over the past week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has become slightly less "bearish" than a week earlier. The number of long-contracts in the hands of speculators increased by 1,865 units, and the number of short – by 506. Thus, the general mood of the major players remains the same – "bearish," and the number of short contracts is still much higher than the number of long contracts, but much less than before. The big players stay in the pound sales for the most part, and their mood is gradually changing towards "bullish," but this process is still very far from completion. The pound has shown weak growth in recent weeks, and COT reports so far make it clear that the Briton is more likely to continue its decline than to start a long upward trend.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - GDP (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday in the UK, the economic events calendar does not contain a single interesting entry, and in the US, there will be two reports that I cannot call insanely important. Thus, the influence of the information background may be weak or medium in strength today.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommend new sales of the British pound when rebounding from the level of 1.1883 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1709. I recommend buying the British when the pair's rate is fixed above the descending trend corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2238.