Stock markets are not yet paying attention to a new wave of fears about the global recession, which was caused by yesterday's data on the Chinese economy. In July, Chinese industrial production reduced the rise from 3.9% y/y to 3.8% y/y, retail sales decreased from 3.1% y/y to 2.7% y/y, the base rate of the NBC was reduced from 3 .70% to 2.75%. Despite the friendly fall in European currencies, the S&P 500 stock index rose by 0.40%, today China A50 adds 0.37% in the Asian session, the Japanese Nikkei 225 adds a symbolic 0.03%.
As a result, amid the growth of the dollar and stock markets, we are waiting for the USD/JPY pair to move up to the nearest target of 134.26 - to the embedded line of the price channel of the monthly timeframe. Consolidating above the level may extend the growth to the target of 136.02 - to the upper line of the price channel.
We believe that at some point investors will begin to withdraw from risk as the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21 approaches, but for now, time makes it possible to follow these sentiments amid a rising market.
The price is above the MACD indicator line on the 4-hour chart, but Marlin is in negative territory both here and on the daily chart. Therefore, we also have in mind an alternative scenario - consolidating under the MACD line, below the level of 132.67, then leaving the area under the support of 132.18, and further development of the downward movement with the target of 129.40.