The Australian dollar strengthened by 1.66% amid yesterday's fall of the dollar index by 1.01%, as commodity assets and stock indices also rose. AUD/USD stopped rising at the level of 0.7107 – at the August 2021 low.
Now it has two equally probable scenarios: in case the price settles above 0.7107, continue to rise to the target level of 0.2585 (high on June 3), and, in case it settles under 0.7030, return to 0.6950, after which try to overcome the support of the MACD line of the daily scale. The downward scenario is more difficult, so the aussie will need support from adjacent markets. We do not recommend selling AUD/USD in case European currencies decline, but an increase in commodity assets.
The Marlin Oscillator is turning down from the overbought zone on the four-hour chart. The price broke away from the MACD indicator line quite high, so we do not expect a quick return to a pronounced decrease (if there is one), but we assume the formation of a certain graphic formation in the range of levels 0.7030-0.7107 that precedes it. Leaving the area under the MACD line, below the level of 0.7005, will confirm the price's intention to develop a bearish offensive.