Forecast for USD/JPY on August 5, 2022

On the daily chart, the price failed to break above the nearest resistance of the price channel line (134.22) twice, and these attempts were made with a weak Marlin Oscillator. It is possible that the corrective growth since August 2 is completed and now the price is set to move to 129.46 - to the lower inner line of the price channel.

An alternative scenario, which provides for continued growth to 134.22, overcoming resistance and further advance to 136.06, has a probability of about 25%. The option with continuation of sideways movement in the range of 132.10-134.22 has a 30% probability.

On a four-hour scale, the price seems to have not yet decided on a direction, the contradictory readings of indicators gravitate towards a sideways scenario. A decline below 132.10 will also lead to the oscillator moving into a downward trend. It is technically easier to develop a decline. Consolidation above 134.22, and, importantly, above the MACD line at the same time, will strongly encourage the players to move for growth.