Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for August 1. COT report. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. The pound continues to grow steadily.

The GBP/USD currency pair, if it did not grow by the end of the day, then at least updated its local highs again on Friday. And when a pair renews highs every 1-2 days, this is called a trend. However, the rising trend line eloquently visualizes what is happening in the market for the pound/dollar pair. As you can see, the movement, which was very doubtful a week ago, now looks very confident, but, unfortunately, everything can change dramatically this week. Recall that the euro and the pound showed a fantastic level of correlation in recent months. However, now the euro is flat, and the pound is inside the trend. Why is that? There was no positive news for the pound last week, and the US data should have had the same effect on the euro and the pound. We believe that the GBP/USD pair is now growing in advance. The Bank of England is almost guaranteed to raise the rate by 0.5%, and the market is working out exactly this decision, which has not yet been made or announced. If we are right, then when the BoE announces its decision, the pound may start to fall rather than continue to rise, which would look much more logical. Therefore, you need to be prepared for the scenario with the pound's decline this week.

Everything in regards to trading signals on Friday turned out to be very difficult, as the pair flew well from side to side. The first buy signal was formed when the price settled above the level of 1.2185. After that, it went in the right direction for 40 points, but did not reach the target of 1.2259. Thus, the deal was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven. Then two sell signals were formed near the same level of 1.2185. They also had to be worked out, and the price subsequently dropped to the critical line, overcame it, and only the reverse consolidation above Kijun-sen indicated the need to close short positions. Profit on the deal amounted to 55 points. At the same moment, long positions should have been opened, and an hour later the pair reached the nearest target of 1.2185, where it was possible to close long positions with a profit of about 50 points.

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report again showed insignificant changes. During the week, the non-commercial group opened 2,600 long positions and closed 600 shorts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 3,200. But what does it matter if the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above? To be fair, in recent months, the net position of the non-commercial group is still growing and the pound also shows some tendency to rise. However, both the growth of the net position and the pound are now very weak (in global terms), so it is still difficult to conclude that this is the beginning of a new upward trend, and the pound will no longer fall. We also said that the COT reports do not take into account the demand for the dollar, which is likely to remain very high right now. Therefore, in order to strengthen the British currency, the demand for it should grow faster and stronger than the demand for the dollar. The non-commercial group currently has a total of 89,000 shorts open and only 34,000 longs. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Theoretical support can be provided to the pound by the Bank of England and the technical need to be corrected from time to time. There is nothing more for the pound to count on now.

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 1. US inflation is of key importance for the foreign exchange market.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 1. The results of the Bank of England meeting may already be taken into account in the current course of the pair.

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on August 1. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

The pair maintains an upward trend on the hourly timeframe and is ready to continue growing. We are still skeptical about the pound's growth, but before the BoE meeting, it can really rise in price. Then, most likely, the fall will resume, as almost the only factor supporting the pound will be offset. Right now there is no reason to sell the pair as it continues to be above the trend line. We highlight the following important levels for August 1: 1.1874, 1.1974, 1.2033, 1.2106, 1.2185, 1.2259, 1.2342. Senkou Span B (1.1923) and Kijun-sen (1.2102) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There are no major events scheduled for Monday in either the UK or the US. Thus, there will be nothing for traders to react to, but the pound can still continue its growth.

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.