Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
EUR/USD tested 1.0195 on Thursday. At that time, the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, so selling was quite appropriate. However, the downward movement was only 10 pips, after which the pair returned back to 1.0195. A similar scenario took place some time later, that is, a downward movement by 10 pips and a return to 1.0195. During the US session, a third test occurred, and this time the euro began to fall. Buyers took this opportunity to trade from 1.0151, which led to a 15-pip increase in the pair.
The speeches of ECB representatives, data on Germany's industrial production and ECB minutes of the meeting did not affect euro yesterday because all of them were expected, having no significant changes. Meanwhile, the US jobles claims report and speech of FOMC members raised demand for dollar even further, pushing EUR/USD to a new yearly low, which maintained the bearish trend in the pair.
Ahead are important events for the market, such as the speech by ECB chief Christine Lagarde. However, she is unlikely to say new things on monetary policy, so it will not have much impact on the pair. Later in the afternoon, the US will post reports on the average hourly wage, change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector and the unemployment rate, which could put pressure on the dollar provided that the figures were weaker than expected. The speech of FOMC member John Williams is unlikely to affect the market.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0188 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0242 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only after the statements of ECB chief Christine Lagarde. Also, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0142, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0188 and 1.0242.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0142 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0100. Pressure will return if Lagarde says dovish rhetoric on monetary policy and if the US reports strong statistics. However, when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0188, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0142 and 1.0100.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.