Unfortunately, the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine is steadily moving towards an escalation the conflict, its transition into a protracted active military phase. The key subtopics now are the supply of weapons from the West, as well as the introduction of the sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia. With weapons, everything is quite simple. It has been pouring in a continuous stream for several weeks. Moreover, if earlier it was only about "protective" weapons, now armored, heavy equipment, tanks, and even (according to some information) airplanes are actively supplied. Naturally, the supplies of EU and US countries are kept secret, so it is quite difficult to say exactly how many units of heavy weapons were delivered. However, neither the States nor the EU denies the fact that they have switched to supplying Ukraine with the latest weapons and equipment, and not the one that has been lying in warehouses for decades.
With sanctions, everything is much more complicated. The sixth package of sanctions, which was recently announced by the European Commission, but has not yet been adopted, contains a rather impressive list of "kicks" for the Russian Federation. First, it is planned to disconnect Sberbank, the main bank of the Russian Federation, from SWIFT. Second, it is planned to introduce a gradual oil embargo. Third, new personal sanctions will be introduced. Fourth, it is planned to prohibit Russians from buying any real estate in the EU. It should be noted that almost all EU countries support the introduction of an oil embargo. Except for Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been repeatedly accused of supporting the Kremlin. Thus, Hungary has every right to block the new package of sanctions. "Neither Hungary nor the EU as a whole is ready to accept and implement the measures proposed by the European Commission. Sanctions can be adopted if all the necessary preconditions are met in all member states," Viktor Orban said, simultaneously calling the oil embargo a "historic mistake." Hungary believes that the embargo will deal a serious blow to the Hungarian economy, and in this case, the European Union should already start increasing investments in green energy and start working towards mitigating the consequences of this step. However, the measures that have been proposed will provoke a new increase in energy prices, which will create powerful pressure on the most vulnerable countries. According to Orban, the EU has enough financing for energy only on paper.
Thus, formally, the sixth package can be blocked by Hungary. In practice, we believe that this will not happen, since there has never been a case when the EU countries could not come to a common opinion on any important issue. The point of the European Union is precisely to find a solution in any case that all 27 participating countries will support, and not to block an important decision by 1 to 2 countries every time. Thus, most likely, Hungary will still give its consent, otherwise political pressure may begin to be exerted on Orban and the whole country.