S&P500
US GDP unexpectedly declined in Q1. However, the US market rallied strongly on the reports.The major US indices closed with a strong gain on Thursday, despite a negative GDP report. The Dow added 1.9%, the NASDAQ grew by 3.1%, and the S&P500 increased by 2.5%.The S&P500 is at 4,287, staying in the 4,260–4,320 range.On Thursday the first US GDP report for Q1 was released. GDP fell by 1.4% with inflation at 8%. In one quarter this is a real stagflation. The only silver lining is that this GDP development will force the Fed to weigh up again its willingness to hike rates sharply at +0.5%. The Fed's decision will be announced as early as next Wednesday. Strong reports were given by technology leaders Meta (owner of Google) and Apple. Earnings rose by 14%.The unemployment report for the week is strong. The number of new jobless claims was 180K. The long-term unemployment rate is low at 1.4 million.The important inflation report for March is out today. Price growth for the month is expected to be 0.4%.Oil rose again on Friday, up 1%. Brent is trading at $108 amid continued conflict in Ukraine and the risk of a halt to oil purchases from Russia.The US authorities are trying to get China on their side. They are proposing lower import duties on Chinese goods, while at the same time this could slow down inflation in the US.The US Congress yesterday voted in favour of the Lend-Lease Act for Ukraine. This makes it dramatically easier to provide aid to Kiev. Biden proposes to provide $33bn in aid to Ukraine.USDX is at 103.10, trading in the 102.80–103.40 range.The dollar index has reached 104.00. Perhaps the rise will stop ahead of the Fed.USDCAD is trading at 1.2740 in the 1.2680–1.2800 range.The US market have bottomed out and are ready to rise. However, it is worth opening long positions from pullbacks.There is no easing of tensions in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russia demands that the US, NATO and allies stop military assistance to Kiev. NATO chief Stoltenberg said that the organization was ready to support Kiev indefinitely. The West declares that its goal is to give Kiev everything it needs to win. At the same time, the West does not intend to intervene in the conflict through direct military involvement, keeping the conflict localised. According to reports from Kiev, there were two rocket attacks on Kiev yesterday, with some wounded. Fighting in the east and south continues unabated. The Kremlin continues to attempt an offensive. Kiev is fiercely defending itself. There are no major changes on the line of contact. The negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are at a standstill. No one wants to make very big concessions, and the positions of the sides are very far apart.